The Last Trade E025: Deep Dive on Bitcoin’s Full Potential Valuation with Dylan LeClair

Before we get into the episode, a quick reminder that the last trade is for informational and entertainment purposes only and nothing should be construed as investment or legal advice. Now for a word from on RAMP on RAMP is a Bitcoin asset management platform built on multi institution custody. We serve high net worth individuals, institutional investors and financial intermediaries with the best in class suite of products which include multi institution custody, a spot Bitcoin fund, Onram Wealth for Rias and private wealth services for high net worth individuals. Leveraging our partnership with Bit Go and other industry leaders, Onram's Multi Institution Custody is a first of its kind institutional grade vault requiring two of three institutions at any point in time to sign once a client's unique permissions have been met. Our multi institution vaults utilize cold storage, key signing and authentication at the direction of the client to maximize security for client assets. This pioneering approach to custody is the foundation of On Ramp's financial products which reduce counterparty risk associated with trusting a single institution. To learn more about how On Ramp can help you secure a new or existing Bitcoin position, please visit our website at on rampbitcoin.com, where you can schedule a consultation and connect directly with our team. What you're telling me is that music is about to stop, and we're going to be left holding the biggest bag of odorous excrement ever assembled in the history of doctors 1974198792972000. And whatever we want to call this. It's all just the same thing over and over. We can't help ourselves. I say when we sell, hey, I say when we sell. Welcome back to the last trade. Is that the new intro, Marty? I think so when we're pumping like we are, you got to, you got to bring the energy week in and week out sitting at 37 K right now, gentlemen, how we feeling? Feeling good? Good. I want to know what the. I want to know what the price was when we launched the pod. Look it up, Logan. Look that up for us, please. You. Know. I'm already starting to have that problem you have in the in the bull markets where it's like the price is going up. I have almost all my net worth in Bitcoin and so I should just be happy about it. But like it also diminishes any additional Bitcoin that I can add to my stack and that hurts a little bit. So, like, already at Mixed feelings. Well, that means you just got to go out and make more money. It's it's actually a a very good motivator to be productive throughout the economy. You're not wrong. Got to increase your revenue to keep the pace of sat stacking at a sufficient level? Yes, it was roughly 2526 thousand in May when the pod pod launched. Look and I like that you're using stat muse to look up the stat. That's what came up for me too. Did it. Yeah, there we go. When when I looked it up I went straight to stat muse. 10/21 portfolio company. Eli, if you listen to this, we know you're out there somewhere. Don't give a a shield of stab Muse 1031 portfolio company incredible Sports data, but they're getting into finance data as well, starting with Bitcoin. This is a little off topic but there's wimby muse. You know Wimby just a freak sanction. Spurs going to see the game tonight he there. The Twitter Wimby Muse is amazing if you just want to see like highlights of what's going to be like a generational. Athlete. We're just looking like 7 fours. Like dribbling up the core, shooting threes anyway. Wimi muse SAP. Muse. We need to go to one of those games in Austin. Spurs are playing in Austin 3 three times this year. You gotta get to one of those games. But we digress. This started because we're talking about the price. Obviously we've seen a big price bump over the last month. I'm gonna pull up the stats. The price of Bitcoin's up 40% / 10,000 dollars, almost $11,000 over the last month. We'll start the conversation. There's gonna be a broad discussion about bitcoins full potential valuation. But to start where we are today and to discuss this 40% increase in price over the last month, what is it? Many people think it's the ETF. What do you guys think we're in? This was an 8 day period where the SEC has the ability to approve. Do an omnibus approval of all the ETF applications out there. It seems like the price is moving in a way that would lead many to believe that they're going to get approved. You guys have any thoughts on this? Yeah. Dylan, do you you want to start there? I. Sure. I mean, yeah, I I think the ETF is a driving narrative, but you know, it's it's interesting to me because and this is a bit anecdotal, but also. You know, just from like a, you know, volumes perspective and all that like it seems like it's still the same pool, not like the same pool of incumbents. Obviously there's, you know, there's outside capital that's increasingly looking at this. You know when Larry Fink comes out and it's like hey, it's you know, it's an international asset that's obviously you know, a stamp of approval. But like none of the people that you'd think are, you know, massive buyers of this bought ETF or Bitcoin as it's like kind of legitimized in the eyes of. Wall Street or you know the traditional financial institutions like none of them have actually allocated any size. It's it's just the supply of Bitcoin is is actually more tightly held than ever and it's super liquid like like spot volumes as of like a month ago they've they've risen a bit but our you know we're all time lows or like lowest lowest since 2018-2019 ish and so. You know, we're 50% from the highs, but you know, it's essentially just like the same group of of people that have been beating the drum. And a lot of these outside institutions are looking at this and like watching it start to run. And you know, we feel FOMO as you know, bitcoiners that are, you know, talking about this on, you know, 25 straight podcasts and every single day doing this full time and like we are fully allocated or like you know, or very, very much exposed. That's not true for like. You know, a couple trillion dollars of capital out there that's looking at this thing saying, damn, I wish I had, you know, a 1% exposure. But like the crazy part is putting a couple billion dollars to work in this market even at a $700 billion valuation, it's it's going to do a lot of of damage to the upside, if you will. So this thing can really rip. The illiquidity is obviously a future in a bear market. It's it's known as a bug, but. Yeah, that's pretty, that's pretty exciting in my view. So whether the ETF is approved in the next, I don't know eight days or whatever, I think they're going to probably table it back, maybe that's a cold take in a week from now. But yeah, I mean I think the ETF is actually is not like the driving feature. The driving feature is the fundamentals which brought about the, the demand for the ETF, right, Like Larry Fink's not a bit Coiner just has clients hammering on his on his desk to to get an ETF across, right. So like. I think people are are reversing the causality here. It's because bitcoins, an institutional asset and legitimate in the 1st place that an ETF is, is now entering the conversation after all these years. Oh, yeah, I I thought I was going to have the contrarian take by saying that, you know, I I'll believe the ETF when it happens. And until then, I'm not going to expect anything. And you know, it could very well be this week, It could be 3 months from now, It could be six months from now. I'm not going to allow myself to be surprised by any of them, but for me the price action right now feels like it feels like summer 2019, which is a bit of a departure from yeah, so, so in, you know, after the 2017 bull market we got to. We got to 20,000 and then the price bounced off of 6000 several times before breaking down at the end of 2018 and staying you know in the 3000 range for three months before starting to tick back upwards and had this crazy rally off the bottom going from 3000 up to like 12,000 in in Q 2/20/19 and so we we. Blasted through the the point of resistance, which would have been 6000 at that point, 'cause that had been the support in the bear market. And then we broke down under that and in that first go we managed to breakthrough that $6000 resistance and there was so much excitement at that point in time, Marty and Matt were were doing rooftop podcasts. Encouraging everyone to stack at what ended up being the exact top of that rally. Pico top. And and I feel like that's what's happening right now and just in terms of the mechanics of this or I I think this rally is, is actually just the market accepting that the bottom the bottoms in and and you better get on board if and if you you know if you haven't bought back in. And so that's, I think, fuelling this rally right now. The difference versus 20/19 was that obviously that was that rally happened a a full year before the the halving in May 2020 and right now this is happening five months before the halving. So I don't think we have time for what happened last time which in in 2019 which was tailing off. You know and kind of slumping for nine months before the excitement of the having the imminent having really started to cause the market to pick up and and find support at around 10,000 and then go up from there. So I think we're just we just sort of shifted this rally from a year in advance to having to five months in advance of the having and that's going to mean I think that we like don't have time to really. Like test the lows again and I think we'll find some sort of support anyway. I think that that's like the actually what's happening and that if that's the case as as Dylan was saying that you know this is really just the same old participants. That means that all of the yet to arrive participants, all of that is additional demand that has not come online yet and will add to the tailwinds that we're already starting to experience. Yeah, there's. A few things I want to add here because we we did a live Rabbit Hole recap in Nashville last night and this conversation came up like is this 2019 Bull Trap Part 2? And it's very interesting. Maybe not even like the 2019 Bull Trap that happened in the early parts of the summer. But if you look at the macro themes at the end of 2019, beginning of 2020, and then you line it up with what's going on now, it's not exactly the same, but. Fall of 2019, we had that repo spasm and the liquidity crisis in the the repo markets which leaked into the broader financial system. Then obviously we had the lockdowns in 2020 and then we had that Bitcoin get cut in half overnight in March of 2020. Then Fast forward to fall 2023 and it seems like I we mentioned. The Treasury auction before we started to record, but the the Treasury auction that happened yesterday was piss poor, worst demand for for an auction in in some time. Who knows whether the Chinese ransomware attack really affected that particular auction, But whatever. Seems like there's some stress in the banking sector, some liquidity problems that may be arising, and so I think that's an interesting. Sort of data point to to take into consideration too. There's something similar happening, not exactly the same this cycle in 2023 that was happening back in 2019 leading up to a halving. So who knows whether that provides some downward pressure on the price at some point in the future of people need to get dollar liquidity and therefore need to sell their Bitcoin. I'm not so sure that's going to happen. For them, beyond that, one thing I want to clarify going back to the ETF and there's a lot of people out there saying that part of what's driving this 40% rise in the price of the last month is BlackRock buying Bitcoin in anticipation of ETF approval. And Jesse? I know you've gone through the filings and don't I know you've been covering the ETF stuff quite a bit as well. But like does that mechanic like that doesn't make sense to me. Like you mentioned to Jesse, like Blackrock's customers are demanding this product. And the way I understand it, the only way BlackRock will buy Bitcoin is if people basically express that they have demand to buy shares in the ETF and then they go out in the market and buy spot after that demands expressed. And that how this works mechanically, like they can't buy Bitcoin. Or stop buying Bitcoin. Yeah. Blackrock's not buying Bitcoin. Yeah. Yeah, I. Think. Of a vehicle like this are that when when an investor wants to put dollars in, then that fund turns around, uses those dollars to purchase Bitcoin and grant units to that investor. Based on whatever the the amount of Bitcoin is generated from converting those dollars into Bitcoin. And so that happens when the investor arrives and when the fund obviously when the fund is active there is probably, there's probably some amount of like you probably want to have like you you want to test it I guess and you want to maybe BlackRock is you know trying to. Make sure that those mechanics work, but like that would be just just negligible volume. It's like the mean black rock's just poking the the Bitcoin, just trying to make sure make sure it works, they can, they can purchase. It and move it. The the BlackRock this this price action actually does feel like the ETF and and I I'm probably I could be wrong or I'm probably wrong but my thought is. I anchor back to Block Fi in Celsius. When they both crashed, they were already kind of priced in like the market already knew. Remember when Celsius like dumped in there was announced, the price already fell. And then similar with Block Fi, it's like market participants already know certain things. It's just the nature of like the way these things work especially smaller such a nascent market that that's what I was thinking. When the price is moving, it's like oh, they already know there's a certain like cohort. It's not somebody buying, like, it's not BlackRock buying for the ETF. It's just people knowing and that we do probably get it. You know, in a relatively short order. And then the other part of the 19 is I was thinking about that. But then I was thinking about like that's a careful, delicate balance on like, you know, thinking that oh, it's going to run and then we're going to crash and then having. Because if it doesn't happen, it's like we all know to expect like when things we expect them to happen, they don't. And other than exogenous effects of like global macro. If it doesn't happen, then there might not be that kind of like retrace that we saw in early 20, I guess it was 2019 and then 2020 there was like 2. Yeah, yeah. It's just sort of trailed off for for nine months going from 12,000 back down to 6000 before finding support there. But yeah, we just don't have time for that kind of bleed out to occur with how little time there is before the halving. And the ETF excitement to, to Michael's point, maybe it is really ETF stuff, but it it's also quite possible that market participants realize that the narrative is enough, you know, and they're participating in this narrative of the ETF is imminent knowing that other people are going to be thinking that and acting on it and it creates its own, you know, bullish demand and narrative, even if it's not yet happening in reality. So that's also possible. The fidelity writing every week about it doesn't hurt. Yeah, yeah. And and this the Bloomberg ETF experts that that that Dylan follows closely. I think they their current expectation is 75% likelihood before the end of the year, I think is it 80, now 80. So you know, they they think it's real. We'll see. I think there's, there's a couple of interesting points. One, and this is kind of the Marty's point could just be like you know, coincidence or anecdotal. But if you think about the last time that Bitcoin topped and also this kind of aligns with like in 2019 that that echo bubble. And then also just if you look at the previous kind of the Fed tightening cycles, you know, everybody likes to think like oh you know, yield curve inverts or like this esoteric employment indicator. But you know, pretty simple. It's like once the Fed starts to cut. That things are get a bit ugly you know like in the in the real economy and and that translates and bleeds into asset prices. Just look at the last time like line it up look at the S&P 500 look at the the Fed cuts rates and if you look the Fed cuts cut rates for the first time during that cycle in July 2019. All right. So like and again there was like a whole bunch of exogenous factors. There was a plus token thing. There was all sorts of like bit next derivative shenanigans like. This is obviously like there's a ton of entropy in this market. You can't just attribute it to one thing. And I do think that this, you know, this time with like the expected BlackRock flows or you know, just institutions now viewing this thing because of BlackRock stamp of of approval in a different manner could definitely change the, the dynamic. And you know that's being reflected in the price action. That's why, you know, bitcoin's up 30 percent, 40%. And, you know, the S&P and NASDAQ are just, you know, kind of flat over the last month. But I think it's just just interesting to look at because you know 2024 we have a few things lining up. We got the halving obviously probably the approval of of these you know, investment vehicles, ETFs and then also there's a good chance and you know a lot of the macro people including myself were banging the drum too early on this. But I don't think we've escaped the realities of like a tightening cycle and and somewhat of an economic downturn, you know, whether it's like devastating or not is one thing, but we've kind of had this like artificial. You know steroid steroid up economy for the last 15 years post great financial crisis COVID was like this you know this kind of last burst of adrenaline to to save a dying patient and now we're a severely over embedded economy still and real rates are positive right. Like not to you know like I'm not trying to be a doomer but like the math doesn't check out with real rates being positive with this much debt. So the longer that we're here, the the more. You're going to see this proliferate, which is happening and the more you're going to see actual pain on the other side. And so I'm not saying this in terms of the Bitcoin exchange rate. I'm saying this in terms of like the global financial system, the global economy, right, the global sovereign debt levels, like the whole 9 yards. Yeah, we can obviously go down a whole rabbit hole talking about that. All this to say on the other side of whatever comes of of this tightening cycle, right? Whatever comes of the result of. Across the curve, 30 years to three months real yields as indicated by inflation expectations again, which taken at face value, they were hilariously wrong in 2020. They can be wrong again. And if they're wrong again, that means we get more inflation. All is to say that like real yields can't be positive or as positive as they are. You know 15 year highs, the highest they were since before the greater financial crisis in 07/08 with this much debt out there. So either we get a whole burst of inflation or they cut rates because things get ugly and you're going to see probably at some point in 24 globally A fiscal and monetary cannon combined with the having combined with the ETF narrative all at once or you know kind of in in a row. Combine that with like bonkers price action and and you get like an environment that's probably not as crazy in in, you know, relative terms as COVID was just 'cause, you know, the magnitude of that stimulus was unprecedented. Maybe, I mean, maybe you do, but I highly doubt that we get, you know, an economy locked down in an employment at 12, unemployment at 1215% overnight again, but regardless, like we haven't experienced a real downturn. People don't like, know what a recession is globally, right? So that's something that you know is a natural result of these cycles, right? You can't just escape reality or gravity for this long without facing consequences And I think that that comes and the reaction function to that whatever it looks like you know whatever tread fed treasury you know kind of like facility comes of this whatever like this this times TARP or you know bank funding bank term funding program or QE or yield drift control like whatever it is. You know, TLDR, like it's excess money in the system, right? Like that's just, you know, boil it down to that. And so that sets up 2024 to just be like, in my opinion, just a crazy bonkers year. And you know, I don't know exactly how it plays out. No one does, of course, but it's, it's going to be exciting. Yeah. Yeah, the, you know it. It follows with the sort of theory that, you know, every time you kick the can down the road, you have to put more effort into kicking it the next time. And the last round of stimulus for COVID was $10 trillion globally. And we obviously saw what that did to price of all assets. So if we have to you know muster a greater kick in 2024 and or beginning in 2024 in terms of stimulus, I don't know what we're talking about. Is it, is it 10, is it 15, is it $20 trillion of stimulus that that is needed to prop up the economy because we haven't allowed a proper recession since 2008 or or really earlier than that? And that's also happening with like you know Citadel yesterday Ken Griffin saying that he's expecting sustained high inflation this decade now. And so that's a shift from a a prominent investor saying that you know the part of that I think is the interest expense on national debt and and how that is actually kind of stimulative to and and expands the monetary base because suddenly you're having to spend more. As the as the the government you try you have to spend more in order to service your debt and then that flows into the economy and helps create the sticky inflationary effect. All of, yeah, all of these trends are lining up together. But Dylan, I wanted to ask, do you think that? I mean, it kind of impossible to know, but do you think that you know if shit hits the fan in 2024, even to some extent? Do you think that that negatively impacts Bitcoin or does Bitcoin get recognized at this point as the solution or the lifeboat to all the sovereign debt problems? I mean, Martin Shkreli was tweeting yesterday about about how Bitcoins Rally is because the US is insolvent and people are waking up to that. You know, is that, is that a narrative that that helps Bitcoin become the? Lifeboat asset for for fiscal crisis that it has always been and people haven't realized because they've assumed it's a risk on tech asset. Yeah, I mean that's an interesting question. Do you want anyone want to chime in? Well, I. Was going to say I was going to ask a question before we even jump. There's two parts like I think that's it's a it's to be interested in dill as responsible before going to that is thinking about. We have an ETF, right, like an actual, like financial product that's set to be launched. We have fidelity talking about this stuff is what is going on in people's heads. Like, let's put ourselves in tratify Bob, you know, you know, tratify Bob, Tratify Bob this. Is a nice archetype. I like this archetype. Boomer, Boomer, Billy. You know, yuppie Sally like they they've been hearing about Bitcoin for six years and 17 and now it's it won't go away. You have BlackRock stepping in fidelity. So like, I was going to ask this and I'm asking it, but before going to Dylan. And then also just like, how are people even thinking about what the hell is happening? Like, what is it? Because it's like, well, it wasn't real. It was rat poison, like all the things that we know and all the different like narratives. And now they have to start to think about it. And this is going to tie into obviously like full potential evaluation and how they can start. But we're just like real questions. Like, what are our friends and family like? What the hell are they thinking right now? What? And it finally died in, in November 2022, right? It was like they were proven correct. Finally. It was like, I knew it was a scam. It's like the Zeon thing, you know, he's like at the Pico Bottom, he comes on, it's like Bitcoin 16,000, like, what do you think? And he's like, well, it has $17,000 lower to fall. You know, it's like like Pico bottom. It's like, you know, this guy that's like generally respected on macro views and geopolitical and he's like, you know, maybe it's just an intelligence asset and it's just saying that stuff because. But like, he's like, no, yeah. And it's going to, you know, it's going to zero. It's going negative and it's, it just ripped in his face. And So what do they think? Like, I I think a lot of people don't don't know what to think because, you know, it was an irrational exuberance in 2021, right? Arc, Tesla, you know, just GameStop, Shiba, Inu, Dogecoin. It was like, oh, it's just like that stupidness, you know, VC everything. And then it they were proven right. In 2022, it finally died. And now Larry Fink's going out there and saying, like, no, this is an international asset. It's bounced up, flirting, you know, back with a trillion, again, like 800 billion. And, you know, there's probably 12 months away from, you know, $40 trillion in in national debt. Like, that's, yeah, it's powerful. No, I mean. And not only you have Larry Fink coming out like putting support behind it, but you see this. Particular narrative, flight to safety, he said it. Muhammad al Lorraine said it. I think Paul Tudor Jones said it as well like so the the Bitcoin meme, it's beginning to form at that layer of institutional capital is flight to safety, which is extremely bullish for Bitcoin. And then we were mentioning it before we have recorded, but outside of this show, we talked to a lot of institutions about Bitcoin and. I'll have to speak for myself. I've noticed over the last month or two specifically that the tenor has certainly shifted and people are definitely paying attention, asking more questions and seeking people out like, all right, I need to get smarter on this. Can you help me? I've I've I've experienced that with some pretty large institutional allocators over the last month or two. Yeah. I think one of the things that's fascinating, all this is like one just trying to put ourselves in the the mind frame of like how we're thinking. Because I think ultimately whether it's the institution or the individual that your friend, they're pretty much on the same spectrum of the cohort that is like this is all crap or this is that because it makes up the same people. So like an institution like Paul Tudor and the the folks in those circles are the same kind of circles lower down the rung that are allocating maybe it's less capital and you still have this other group that's looking at it like this thing didn't go away in 17, it's still here in 20. But what is it worth like, OK, can BlackRock custody better than everybody else? So now I go like there's still this frame there. They're trying to wrap like a position around it. Like what is it? Is it physical? Is it digital? Blackrock's offering it up. So it can't be like completely vaporware because I think that's where complete vaporware, that's where it had been like looked at for so long. And so it's just like an interesting thought experiment of like how like the mind is like wrapping itself around this like asset that and we're here and it comes in. It kind of ties into Jesse's question to Dylan of like. Well, how are they going to think when the bonds and all those things go tits up? It's like they don't even know what to think about it today. Like what tits up they're going to be thinking about. There's a there's all these other issues that are coming up around it, and it feels like it's a long way to go for it to get to that point where it's like the this, like the from an order of operations to be the the actual savior or the thing that saved them. Yeah, yeah, I in the in the on ramp roundups, I've been been writing weekly and I I said the same thing just recently in a conversation with Preston Pitch. But there's like 2 extremely strong narrative violations that have that are happening that that have already happened. You know just recently it's, you know for all, for all of bitcoin's history, it's been this, you know, extremely volatile thing that you can't touch because it's far too risky. You know it's massive drawdowns and, you know, stay away. It's toxic. And you know, here we are, you know, a year, almost directly a year after, you know, the second biggest exchange in the world collapsed and Bitcoin is is closer to its all time high than the US long bond, the US Treasury bond. The second, you know, narrative violation is like any single any any person ever that's just bought Bitcoin daily from any date ever is in the green. You start on the all time high. You buy Bitcoin every single day starting at 69,000 in November 2021 to today you're up 40%. So like the the trope of like it's far too risky, don't touch it, too volatile you know stick with like the 6040. While the 6040 has gotten absolutely killed on no volatility, it's been killed in a straight line. You know, no volatility downwards. While Bitcoin, obviously hyper volatile, has provided anybody that's ever just passively accumulated it crazy returns. And so like, there's a shift there, right, where like for the longest time it was just like the, you know, the hardcore Bitcoiners, you know, they got the crazy people that have laser eyes on Twitter that were saying this stuff. And now there's it's most definitely And just from the conversations that we've, you know, we said we had prior to this episode, it's happening in boardrooms, right? Like like like it's not just this small corner of the Internet anymore. That's like saying screw you to the system and it's like, you know, anarchist money. It's like, oh shoot, like my return profile for my my $100 billion fund actually is going to suffer if I don't understand this. And that's a that's a different place than we've been ever, right, Micro strategy up a billion. Yeah, I, I, I. For me, my mental model always brings us back to like the the bell curve of technology adopters and Bitcoin is. Slowly making its way through the bell curve of who's going to adopt this technology. And for the 1st 15 years, it's been the absolute bleeding edge of people who have a reason to adopt this, whether it's because they're, you know, anarcho capitalists or or just libertarian or or technologists. And it has been slowly making its way and proving itself out too. That's an important part of this. It's the the the Lindy effect of it. It normalizes as it's around longer and longer and it becomes more reliable because it's been around longer. And so we're we're still so early in the adoption curve, you know by any realistic assessment of like. How far into the global adoption curve are we in terms of people who have adopted Bitcoin as a savings technology? We're still in the first half of percent of adoption, which puts in in the 1st 2.5% of the the classical bell cover of adopters is the innovators category, which is to say that, you know after that is the early adopters. We're not even, we're not. We're 1/5 of the way into the innovators category. Let alone the early adopters category, then the early majority, late majority and laggards. But I think that different types of adopters are on their own version of the adoption curve. Like it has to be the individuals who are bleeding edge and have a reason to adopt, who adopt 1st and then. And institutions, their adoption curve doesn't start right away because it has to be proven out by individuals before any institution will will consider it as a legitimate investment. And we're really just beginning that adoption curve now the the institutional adopters the so. So as we're collectively getting to this point in the adoption curve, new narratives start to matter for the incremental next slice of adopters. Versus the, you know what has happened over the 1st 15 years. And so I think the narratives for the next slice of adoption is more around like how do I make sure I have a diversified portfolio and not miss out, which is very different from from what it's been for the last 15 years. And and I think that's part of how like each successive slice of the adoption curve when you're on the front half of it becomes a larger and larger cohort of people who are adopting over the same space of time. And you know, in that sense it's exponential, it's that's where the gradually then suddenly really plays out of we're reaching A exponentially larger slice of adopters just as this thing proves itself self out and becomes necessary to incorporate into the average portfolio and we're really just beginning that era which is extremely exciting. Climbing the S curve, gentlemen. Yeah, and and just like everything in Bitcoin, it's a lot more accelerated because there's asymmetry. And if you're not allocating like traditional tech adoption curve, like if you stay in the standard, maybe you, you're a laggard, but you're not like completely losing where if you stay in a bad form of money, you're you may have no money, right. And so. Yeah. And tying it back to the relative lack of liquidity that exists like this pump has happened on relatively low volume I think. If you're comparing, this is actually a good segue into what we came here to talk about, which is Bitcoin's full potential valuation. But if you're comparing it to like tech adoption, like the Apple App store or something like that, it's much easier. You know that adoption happens very quickly, but there's no like monetary value outside of Apple's stock price, which is somewhat elastic. They can issue new shares or buy them back. But with Bitcoin, it's. It's finitely scarce with 21 million and the reflexivity of the price as more and more people adopt this as we climb the S curve is going to be unlike anything we've ever experienced in human history. Yeah. And I think one thing that ties into this full potential valuation is. People generally that we know value or maybe it's not people we know because we know a lot of crazy people. But people that are generally allocating the Bitcoin, they're holding 123 percent and it's their have a personal account, they have cash and they allocate. They're not thinking about it as like what do I take out of my real estate portfolio if they own 100 pieces of real estate in California? Like that sounds crazy and I think that's where like risk premium lies in like most I think people on this. Chat or holding the majority of their capital in Bitcoin because they've, you know, done the work and seen there's risk premium that exists across spectrum of assets. And it's like all roads lead to Bitcoin and the liquidity profile, counterparty risk and all the things we know about it. But I think that's really where that full potential valuation comes in. And looking at it, it's like, well, all of these other assets that people are holding that make up the majority of global wealth all have certain risk premiums and they continue to increase. As you know, we know inflation's increasing. So I think that's like a big component. There's like asymmetry there. And people are like measuring Bitcoin against maybe their dollar exposure, but not other assets and how they compare. And if you look at it long enough, you're like, oh shit, this actually competes with all these other assets. And again, the risk premium isn't like actually appreciated. And the easiest example is like San Francisco commercial real estate, right? But there that goes down the spectrum of doesn't matter what the asset is. I I think also kind of adding to your guys points about like the S curve and the adoption component. Like I think there was maybe it was like an early Bitcoin talk narrative or just like how people perceive that this like hyper bitcoinization trend would happen. It's like I I don't believe that you know everybody is going to be on their iPhone denominating all things in Bitcoin like in the western world. That's unbelievable. And it's like it was a it's it was always a fundamental kind of misunderstanding of how the whole process would play out. It's like no, you know there's going to be a billion people in the western world that get exposure to this thing. You know, a small like a a small kind of minority cohort will be doing it actively themselves, individually, personally like through their you know business, right. If they're an entrepreneur. But you know the the majority of people probably first are going to be probably not even knowing they own Bitcoin because the pension, the 401K, the, you know, the insurance you know premium that they pay every month for their for their healthcare, right. Like on the back end they're buying the Bitcoin, right. They're like all of these Fiat denominated liabilities that go out 30 years, right. Where the math just doesn't compute right. Like whether it's you know, on the government level but more so like on an institutional level, right. Especially after all these fixed income portfolios took like you know held to maturity they're they're taking losses if they market to market of like you know thirty 4050% on their bonds none of the math makes sense. And so on the back end like Bitcoin as a hard money is obviously like as it's pumping and everyone is looking to it that's going to to play a big role. But so people like I'm trying to say what I'm trying to say here is like people are going to own Bitcoin and obviously as many people, we want as many people as possible to own it self custody, understand it, understand its full potential value. But a ton of people are going to get Bitcoin exposure because they own S&P 500 index or because their pension has it and you know, they have a small allocation that grows from 1% to 5%, right? Like that's how a lot of people are going to get exposure to this asset And you know, just, you know, 10, maybe a handful of people, 100 people in the US where are going to buy exposure and then the coming years for millions, right. And like that's that's the thing that I think is a bit misunderstood in this whole transition. That's a great point that we are sort of shifting to the. As institutional investors are waking up to this and and the math on you know 30 year bonds that those are the become the decision makers and the trendsetters. You know, like if you want to, if you want to set a trend in the investment community, you, you influence Ray Dalio or, you know, Larry Fink. And those guys are waking up, not so much Ray Dalio, only slightly for him. But yeah, and, and, and so Dylan's right there, like it becomes 100 people making decisions on on behalf of 100 million people in terms of how their pensions are allocated. Or like, what's the standard for corporate treasury incorporation of Bitcoin, you know, into corporate treasury reserves. That becomes how most people get backdoored into normalizing Bitcoin for their portfolios, even if they haven't personally adopted it as a savings technology. Yeah. It's an extremely important point to internalize and understand and that's it. Like while we're on this conversation, I know we need to get to the full potential evaluation. But the question in my mind is how do you have somewhat of a controlled transition? From bond exposure to Bitcoin exposure, 'cause you mentioned obviously a lot of these pensions, a lot of these institutions, these banks, if they were to mark their bonds to market, would be severely underwater. They understand that and they understand they probably need the flight to safety that Bitcoin provides. But how do they do that mechanically without creating like a cascading sort of devolution of the market structure and treasuries? That actually allows them to get a meaningful amount of Bitcoin, Like like the slippage conversation, I guess the banks. The banks are all screwed for, you know, and and that screwed put it lightly, right? Like Bank of America is mark to market insolvent. You know, that's just like an incomprehensible idea a few years ago or even, you know, a a decade ago, especially great before their great financial crisis. And you know, all this was just papered over with 10 years of QE and and. You know, targeting on the long end and zero interest rates. And now, you know, people are kind of waking up that like, oh, you know, the whole higher for longer narrative is like, oh, maybe this fantasy, you know, world like isn't true anymore. And and I'm sitting here just like kind of laughing almost because it's like, yeah, OK, higher for longer. But the debt levels are also higher than they've ever been. So it's like, you know, we had 30% inflation over 2 1/2 years, three years. And debt as a relative percent of as relative to productivity is higher. And before the inflation shock, which is the opposite of how, you know you're supposed to do it, if you want to kind of like manage this transition and and get back to somewhere where like you're not past this, you know, supposed like event horizon. So I mean for the banks like who knows like what the the Basel requirements are and like that's kind of a whole boring world. But increasingly like and maybe this is like, I don't know, maybe this is like going to be flat out wrong. I'm not saying like. Super cycle up only there's going to be plenty of volatility, but it's I think there's the potential for this thing to happen quicker than most people can comprehend, right? Like rip faces, like the the 1015 year thing of like Oh yeah, you know we're going to kind of just like 2X draw down kind of you know bubble up collapse and we're going to do this for another 15 years possibly in. My in my view might be a naive view on things as as you said earlier, like the reflexivity of this. Asset and idea and the technology behind it is compounding and most people are just looking at it on a linear chart, don't understand what's unfolding. And so that's where you know it might it could happen like faster than even the most bullish people believe and not to be like a Moon Boy. But you know what I mean? Like this, this could really, really get. Crazy Dylan. It's a. Friday morning I could use some Moon Boy juice, so thank you. Well, I but I think there's legs to that simply because of this anchor point that the math doesn't add up when people start waking up and there's bags of zeros. Banks are insolvent. It's probably not the states because we'll we'll come up with some, you know BTFP or whatever, but there's going to be other places that are having zeros and that's when stuff goes no bid because people are looking for an asset with a profile that they can take and they can put wherever they need to put it or they can verify that it's theirs and it's it's sitting somewhere. That's the like, I think gradually and suddenly moment is everybody starts to coalesce and we've seen mimetic world in the past, you know couple of years, let alone 10 years. Once it's the thing, it's the thing and everybody wants it, it doesn't matter like if it's a new app, you mean whatever it is. And so that's where like think with Dylan's driving to yours, like all the math doesn't add up and when somebody goes to the bank one day or something real happens and you don't, you can't get that and that's right. Go back to like counterpart risk and we talked about these like Sprott and there's a couple of the it's not. ETFs, they're the quasi ETFs, like the trust that deliver commodities. And everybody's always like, they're those are really small footprints compared to like GLD. And they're like, well, you know, they think of it as like they were either wrong or nobody really wants it. It's like nobody really wants it because they didn't know that they wanted the delivery of it because it was always there when they asked for it. Or they could get the dollars. But I think we're going to a world where people stop making hole in their obligations and that's effectively when this thing gets crazy. Yeah. And that that whole process I think is is kind of the the starting point for full potential evaluation analysis of like when when people do the math and realize that these other asset classes cannot deliver reliable returns in in real terms. Do we lose Jesse? Everyone. Jesse, we're. Losing you? It's not the worst. It's not the worst. Wi-Fi. It's not the. Worst pause phase I've ever seen on this show, but it's not. Not the best either. Maybe. Maybe Logan, we throw up the one of the slides on the full potential and then he'll come back and see it and he'll he'll be ready to. The one that I'm thinking of is the the chart with the different asset classes, but maybe there's a different one. It's the the. Rectangle chart, yeah. I can hop in here for a second and maybe provide some color until Jesse gets back. And this is this is kind of an in relation to the the full potential valuation idea. But when we say like the the numbers don't add up or like you know, the math doesn't compute. Jesse's back. Maybe I'd just let him rip on it. You keep going. You keep going, you got kicked out. You're you're going now? All right. Well, yeah, I'll just share this, this one I guess stat or idea, but like when like we're in very rare air in terms of the debt levels globally, but like in the US right where the world reserve currency, there's only been you know 50 instances ever, 53 instances ever of nations with this high of a debt burden and all of them have defaulted except the US today and modern day Japan. And so people, often times you'll have these kind of debates, like these macro, long term macro debates and they'll say, yeah, well, you know, Japan got away with it, right? Like look at what they're doing. And I just sit there and laugh because it's like, yeah, look at what they're doing. They're doing your yields here of control and the yen's collapsing against every other currency that matters. So it's like if your if your base case scenario is like, oh don't worry about it, you know the US can escape this and not just the US like the US as kind of a reference. Point and like the you know the the the dollar as a every other currency is a derivative of the the US dollar essentially and and all the debt is a derivative of the US sovereign debt market like oh OK the analogue's Japan. So we're just going to conduct yield curve control, screw the creditors, screw the savers and the currency is going to utterly you know collapse essentially because like look at the price action of the yen, right, They're they just. OK. Yep. The yield passed 25 basis points or they moved it to 50 and they moved it to 100 basis points on the 10 year. And whether it's explicit or implicit yield curve control or some form of like BTFP facility that you know, it's maybe is a bit more broadened and you know it's definitely some word word salad that like most people don't really understand what's what's happening, right. Like there's not wide scale outrage because who? Who? Besides maybe like? 10,000 people understand the mechanics of the bank term funding program, right? Like it's just this esoteric thing, but what is it? It's like bailing out. It's bailing out Wall Street in the banks instead of Main Street, right. So like you have to do this at a wide scale level because again, the math doesn't work. So what's if if if you're thinking the Bank of Japan and then the Japan analogue is is what we're facing, you know what's what's the other side of the equation? For the dollar, right. Like what? What's the dollar just, you know, devaluing at a rapid pace on is it gold, right. Is it, is it Bitcoin? Like, these are the questions that have to be asked. And like, shockingly few people are asking them. They're like, oh, you know, higher for longer. And I'm just sitting there like, what are you even talking about? Because, like, none of the math makes any sense. Yeah. And to that point too like the I'm looking for a chart now I can't find. I think Lynn Alden was tweeting it out a week or two ago. But if people use like Japan's yield curve control example and be like look they did it. They were fine. They're making a critical mistake where you if you look at like the median and mean average income or the median mean income in Japan, they're much closer like they have a much their their wealth gap is much. Less wide in in Japan compared to the US And so like just like the literal income landscape across the two countries is completely different and that's a cultural thing that that is different between Japan and the US. And so like the that like they've had relative stability in Japan because of the lack of the the wealth gap that exists there compared to the US where if you're trying to do. Try to say that the US can do what Japan did for the last three decades. It's simply not gonna materialize just because the the makeup of the wealth gap in the United States compared to Japan. Culturally they decided to bat down the the hatches and have everybody live somewhat equally from an income perspective. Interesting. I I wasn't familiar with that. That's that makes a lot of sense. Sorry, I got cut off. I could see you guys talking, but I was frozen. Thanks for. Tuning In to the Last trade If you're enjoying the show and want to dive deeper, check us out at on rampbitcoin.com where you'll find a full suite of institutional grade research and analytics, including our recently published white paper, Bitcoin's full potential valuation, and our new tool, the On Ramp Terminal. Now back to the show anyway, so, so to pick up where we were leaving off of like this is the the, the segue into what we're here to talk about the Bitcoin's full potential evaluation. And and this is the path of like of connecting the dots that points to this analysis of you know if we're entering this several decade period where at at all times every every investor has a menu of options for how they can allocate their capital. There's different types of assets they could be sitting in and you care about diversification, but most importantly you care about performance in real terms. And if we're entering this era of of debasement bonds in particular will suffer because those are future promises for dollars. And if you're debasing the dollars that they're paying out, that hurts the value in real terms of of that bond contract. Similarly hurts for for Fiat money if you're holding that. But it also impacts every other asset too. You know, it impacts equities because, you know, if we were in an era of stagflation, for example, you know, we had that in the 70s, Stocks went sideways for a decade. They were down in real terms, sideways and nominal terms, down in real terms because the economy was struggling. And it's harder to deliver strong performance when people are consuming less because they're struggling to pay their bills. And you're also having to devalue future cash flows. In your valuation model, you're discounting them more because you're pricing in higher interest rates as that stagflation becomes stickier and you expect it to last for longer. So anyway the equities start to underperform in real terms and So what performs well in in the 70s it was gold which had a 14X over the course of 12 years and that you know that's hard assets, hard assets do very well in in a period of of high inflation and Bitcoin is a hard asset, Gold is a hard asset as well. And so you know the when I first got into Bitcoin, when I when I arrived at Bitcoin only in 2020, a big part of how I was thinking about you know what's the opportunity here is trying to figure out what can this thing become. You know if if this thesis of you know the changing world order, the breakdown of of sovereign debt, you know the reset of sovereign debt as we know it. If that plays out, what does it mean for Bitcoin in terms of its full potential? And that's that's a management consulting exercise that you often run to try to understand this, the potential scale of an opportunity usually in management consulting context with regard to like a particular business unit or product line for a company. But in this case, what's the full potential for Bitcoin? What can it become in the global asset landscape? And so that was the exercise that I started was kicking around in my own head and doing scratch math on in 2020 and 2021. And I've crystallized it into a full report for for on Ramp here in 2023, which by the way for everyone is available to to to download on Ramp's website. So if you go to on rampbitcoin.com and right there at the top of the page there's a button that says download the full bitcoins full potential evaluation report available to anyone. So you could just click that button and and see this whole report. And so Logan's just pulled up on screen the the first page here of of this report and the the general arc of it is taking stock of first you know what what is a full potential valuation exercise and then what are the necessary necessary ingredients that you have to have in place in order to complete that exercise. And the the big ones are you need to you need to understand what's the total addressable market and that is an exercise of understanding how much value is out there. So you need to have a a size for the total global asset value landscape and so that's step one and then then the exercise becomes what's the ceiling for Bitcoin in this landscape. And that is an exercise of taking stock of the strengths of the other assets versus Bitcoin and figuring out in in in particular relative to these other specific assets what could Bitcoin take. And and bonds is the the best example 'cause we were talking earlier about how for everyone holding bonds in their portfolio, maybe it's 40% of their portfolio in in the classic 6040 portfolio. And and this math isn't adding up going forward. And people may go through their own personal exercises on an individual basis of reassessing what what their portfolio allocation currently is and decide, you know what, maybe I don't want to have 40% in bonds. Maybe I want to have a a piece of that sitting in hard assets. Maybe that's gold, maybe that's Bitcoin if it's both. And as this math plays out it may become clearer and clearer that Bitcoin is performing better than bonds and will perform better than bonds. And so that percent allocation may grow as people become more confident in that math and and people allocate appropriately So and and that's an exercise that has to happen for every single asset bucket in the global asset landscape in order for you to come up with your own personal expectation about what's possible. If Bitcoin siphons away X percent of value from this asset Y percent from this other asset and so on down the list. When you sum up all that the amount that Bitcoin has captured from these different store value buckets to figure out what's the potential what's the full potential for bitcoin's valuation and then what does that mean in terms of the price per coin. So that's the arc of this analysis and and Logan if you want to pull up the the actually the global asset landscape chart we can talk through that because so you know a a big part of this analysis was trying to take stock of how much, how much value is out there and I was sort of surprised that nobody really had a clear answer on on how much value is there in the investment landscape. And so I kind of put to work the management consulting tool kit that I got from my time at Bain to triangulate from various data sources what how much value sits in real estate, in equities, in bonds, in the other smaller categories like precious metals, art, collectibles. And of course there's there's money itself. How much is there? And through that exercise, I came up with this number of there's $900 trillion of global asset value out there, of which Bitcoin is. Well, at the at the time, just a month ago is 500 billion. Now it's a little bit more, but we'll say it's 500 billion. And so that's about 1-2 thousandth of the world's value, which is pretty shocking because that means it's 0.05% of the world's value is sitting in Bitcoin, which is quite a small percentage. And so that's your starting point for this analysis. And and then we get into, you know, what sets the ceiling for these different asset categories in terms of how much value they can store and how Bitcoin is different because it doesn't have the same problem that all of these other asset buckets have, which is that there's new supply being added to any, any store value bucket. Gold being a classic example where there's 1.5 to 2% more gold being added from gold mining to the above ground supply every single year. And that's been true for the last century. And so the ceiling for gold in terms of how much value it can possibly store is really based on how much value the market can absorb per year from new supply coming online, so. 2% of gold is a $12 trillion asset category asset class. There's $12 trillion of gold in the world and so 2% of that every year. Gosh my math is going to be a little fuzzy on that with a six hundred 240 billion I believe in in in supply, new supply that has to be absorbed by the market every single year And that sets your your that the demand side of that coming you know into contact with with supply sets your equilibrium in terms of the price spot price of gold for you know for gold coming into the market and that dictates the price the total value that's stored in in in all the existing gold reserves in the world. So it's it's really the intersection of supply and demand and supply being that key ingredient here for all of these categories. It sets the the ceiling for what's possible in terms of how much value can be stored in in gold, but also in art, in in real estate as well. And Bitcoin has this crazy property of increasing scarcity, which is to say, decreasing issuance over time with every four, every four years, with the halving of the the block reward, the block subsidy. And that means that over time, Bitcoin's ceiling isn't based on supply, it's based on something else. There's there eventually is no new supply so it doesn't have the same ceiling that gold has the same mechanics for for a ceiling that gold has it. In that sense it has an unbounded ceiling. And then what becomes relevant is not how much supply the market can absorb every year, but rather how much you want to hold Bitcoin versus other assets in your portfolio. And and then from that comes this final exercise of taking stock of the individual categories here and and it then it becomes a a personal choice choose your own adventure exercise of of going through and and thinking OK, what feels right in terms of what Bitcoin as a superior store of value asset with these more attractive properties especially in the context of the the the end days of Fiat money and the debasement that has to follow. How much you know how much of each of these categories will Bitcoin attract away from these categories in terms of capital? This is so. Bearish. Yeah. And and so I came up with my with my numbers of of what percent from each category and I kept them conservative. I that that was at least in my mind conservative. And then you sum them all up in terms of how much value flows away from these categories and into Bitcoin, sum up all that value divide by 21 million and you end up with with $10 million per Bitcoin. And so that for me is the I think conservative full potential valuation for Bitcoin. And so I know that I, I didn't intend for it to turn into a monologue of the entire analysis the whole way through. But if that was interesting to anybody, if that sounded crazy to you and you and you want to test the rigor of that or see these numbers and especially if you want to take a look at this methodology and input your own assumptions, go check out this report available at the on ratbitcoin.com website right there at the top of the page and and get your copy and and see if it makes sense to you or or update the numbers based on what you think it should be. And then compare that end result against the price of Bitcoin today and see if you're not bullish. Yeah. I think there's probably a lot of thoughts. The one thing I want to call out is I really love the the, the I forget the the title of the graph, the asset valuation or the global asset landscape. I I. Think if if for anything going to look at that one if you're listening and haven't seen it because I think like it's almost it's like a cousin in my mind of the stock to flow model. It gives somebody like a mental model of how to look at the asset and then also question what are the other assets and why were they worth that way and then like thinking about the properties against Bitcoin. So yeah, I think that it there's a it's a good framework to look at and I think a lot of times people think about again, going back to tradify Sally or whatever her name was. She's just looking at this thing like, what the hell is it? It's just an orange coin and it keeps disappearing in people from, you know, people's wallets or whatever until like start thinking about it as, you know, whatever it is and then against other assets I think is helpful. Yeah, you you confirm what Hal Finney said in 2009? Yeah, you. You actually went and like found he had like the roughed estimate, but he went and like found the hard details, I think you. Stole it. I think you stole it from Al probably. But yeah, yeah, I think, I think that's right. Yeah, he had a very different methodology but he comes up with a a similar number. His assumptions there actually is that there's X amount of of value in the world and that Bitcoin will consume it all which is not the assumption that I that I take here. But he he's starting with sort of wrong inputs. Yeah. OK Logan pulled it up. Heard from Jesse. Powell was wrong. As an amusing. Thought for those who can't see it, but this is what Hal said in 2009. Like right when Bitcoin launched as an amusing thought experiment, imagine that Bitcoin is successful and becomes the dominant payment system in use throughout the world. Then the total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all the wealth in the world. Current estimates of total house house worldwide household wealth that I found range from 100 trillion to 300 trillion. With 20 million coins, which is wrong with 21 million, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million. Yeah. So obviously Hal was was just kind of doing a a rough assessment here he he didn't spend several days gathering data points on each of these asset value buckets and then triangulating and and adding them up. And I think that the the main difference the the assumption that I I will say Hal get gets wrong here it's kind of rare to be able to don't you dare think about anything. I think what Hal gets wrong is that the the assumption that all of the value flows into Bitcoin, because, you know, today there's $120 trillion of Fiat money and yet there's $900 trillion of global asset value, which is to say there's there's only 120 trillion, Let's say, let's say it's all dollars, there's only 120 trillion greenbacks and yet we price all these other assets, we value them in, in dollar terms. And so we, you know, that means that there's actually 900 trillion greenbacks worth of value, even though a small percentage of it is actual money. And Bitcoin will end up in the same sort of position, assuming it takes over the world of money. We will still have other assets and they will still have value. Real estate will still be valuable. You know, Monet paintings will still be valuable and and certainly equities will still have value. They may all be priced in Bitcoin terms and expressed in in Bitcoin terms and yet there's there's only 21 million Bitcoin. So we we started this before I I'd said I have a bit of a hot take that I think ultimately there ends up the world ends up with 100 million Bitcoin worth of value and you know obviously there's only 21 million Bitcoin, but it's because we express the the value stored in all these other buckets in Bitcoin terms even if that value isn't currently held in Bitcoin at that point in time. And so I think it's a that's the departure versus what Hal was doing where he assumed that Bitcoin becomes 100% of all the value, whereas this analysis assumes it ends up being 20, maybe 25%. And that's based on my conservative assumptions. It could end up being 50%, maybe it's maybe it ends up only being 5 or 10% for some unforeseen reason. But that's the sort of the challenge to so everyone listening of like go take a look at this analysis, see if it's reasonable to you and then change it based on what you think is even more reasonable. And I I think that's the the the power of of going through this report. Yeah, so. Let's do this right now in the round table. Start with Dylan Logan, pull up the the chart where the last chart you none of that one you just had up and Dylan. I think this is very bearish, particularly looking at the Bitcoin capture section. Of of this and this is conservative. I I I am I am being a bit facetious here but I do think we could get some valuable discussion out of everybody's perspective of how much Bitcoin actually captures in these different asset buckets. So we'll start with Dylan. What do you think of this conservative breakdown put forth by Jesse? Too conservative, too? Optimistic. I think it's AI think it's a good starting point. I yeah, I've I've kind of had a similar. You can say it's too bearish. Bearish. Well, I mean. Gordon Bearish. Honestly, like I think it's, you know that it gets a point across of, you know, at a $700 billion valuation currently with all these things that we covered beforehand, it's just laughably mispriced and then you know. The the entropy of the world and you know just Bitcoin kind of monetizing around the world and kind of programming us all to to work for it and slave away for it every day. That'll do the rest. So I don't, I don't know, I don't really have. I think it's a it's a great way to ballpark it. I actually have a good. Framework to For Jesse's point on like, why art 'cause it's always the Mona Lisa. But Mona Lisa, if we go through this framework like we can all probably agree Bitcoin's a better form and we'll probably consume all of. All bonds because you're basically going to like price a bond in Bitcoin terms like what Bitcoin you get back real estate. The question with real estate would be outside of the utility of owning 1 to X number of homes that you would need from like, you know, vacation. It takes all the investable value out of it because you obviously we have, we know all the attributes of Bitcoin mirror real estate, but just in digital form, you know, gold over time. So you start looking through the list, you're like well what what would you price a premium over the monetary premium And the the couple that you go to is like, well, fine art. But then a lot of people are holding fine art because of you know it's a it's a sick like there's there's this like natural thing that happens whether it's real estate or whatever is in a portfolio that somebody gets rid of because they'd rather hold Bitcoin as they learn about it. And I think that actually happens with fine art as well, because it's like even if. It's like, why am I paying the insurance cost and all the like overhead? Because it's still not free to put the Mona Lisa somewhere. And then equities obviously are just a derivative of Bitcoin. Like they'll the money will flow from an equity that's worth, you know, dog shit, basically somebody holding Wework or rather sell it to go into BTC and then you start to reprice equities and then you get dividends from the, you know, exposure to it. So anyway, going through this I think you end up like. I think how is pretty much spot on. On the on the margins, you have some like things that people like because they look at them and they're pretty, but they don't consume A monetary premium, which most of these things have done because of inflation, even if it's gold inflationary rate, yeah. I'm looking at real estate particularly and like I think this is one or two X off. At least you bring it back to the quad box. So you have like 15 percent, 45% from real estate. Yeah, 'cause you think. About like New York City's a great example of this. You get all the high end real estate in Midtown by Central Park and it's literally just far wealth parking their wealth outside of the confines of their own country, using it as the savings vehicle. They don't. They never live in the apartments in the penthouses. They just buy it to store wealth in Manhattan real estate over time like. Getting back to what Michael said, like real estate has utility, which has a cost that's worth paying for. Then you have the premium on top of that utility, which is typically dependent on aesthetics and location. And so like what how big is the value of the utility and then how much is the overall premium on the aesthetics and the location on top of that. I find it hard to believe that's 85% of the total real estate market right now. Yeah, quite quite possibly. I'm I'm actually fully on board with with what you guys are saying and and you know, so I think that my conservative assumptions here are are overly conservative. I think that's like you know when you do an exercise like this, what you are trying to defend against in terms of what inputs you're picking is it you want people to not attack those assumptions. You want people to like actually engage with the analysis and that's a big part of why you pick the conservative assumptions because you know taking 15% from real estate is is plausible to anyone who thinks about it taking half. Some people might reject that and and then not engage with the analysis. But yeah you're right like who's to say it doesn't take 50% of of real estate and and I think bonds is is the even bigger case here of you know if if we if we're repricing the world in Bitcoin and and shifting away from this you know exponential growth monetary base Fiat system, then the bond bucket shrinks tremendously and it all becomes expressed in in Bitcoin terms. But you know you could it could shrink to be 110th the size and and then you're talking about all of that value, 90% of that value flowing into other things. Bitcoin being that the winner. Because because Bitcoin replaces bonds in terms of its functions, its function in a portfolio where bonds today are what they what they promised to investors is a small guaranteed yield, even if it may or may not be real yield and versus just nominal yield. And and then what Bitcoin does is because of its increasing scarcity and the fact that it's the finite supply and that you know it it, it can then reflect growth in GDP is then passed down into the expansion of of value of Bitcoin over time, because it has that finite supply, then Bitcoin becomes a guaranteed yield. It's just a totally different way of thinking about it. You're not getting more Bitcoin, but because of increasing scarcity and the finite amount of it, it's guaranteed to appreciate in value if you if you get there. In terms of accepting the logic there, it yields. You more goods and services throughout the economy, essentially, yeah. And then that ends up replacing bonds. It it, it does what what bonds were able to do over the last 40 years Bitcoin can do going forward indefinitely, and what bonds were able to do over the last 40 years. Bonds will not be able to do going forward. Fiat bonds be because of the they have to be debased in real terms and so that like you you could end up taking 90% of that bucket instead of the 30% that I assumed one of the. The things that's most interesting is what is the cost of capital turn into like for a bond for somebody to lock out like a Bitcoin bond. Or we talk about equities and it's going to reprice, but it's like somebody's going to have to pay a dividend on that because you're not just going to lock up your capital when you can just hold it because of the purchasing power and the risk premium on the equity and the execution of the business. That's the most fascinating thing because now you're starting thinking about everything in a different version, which is like some of us already thinking about that world. And then it's like, well, do I want to, you know, yeah. And that's where the last trade comes in, right? Because until we reach this end state, like there's no point in holding anything else if if Bitcoin's going to outperform, vastly outperform everything. Just as it as it monetizes as it bootstraps from no value to its end state value and and only in that end state does does it then make sense to like to do what Preston Pitch talks about of like value investing on a Bitcoin standard in equities. Yeah, well, there's been a. Nuance there too. I agree, like everything held static. If we were in a vacuum that we were able to adopt Bitcoin quickly as you hold it till it fully monetizes and then go do that value investing. But. In the meantime, companies do need to be formed, products and services do need to be brought to market. So you're like like weighing the opportunity cost within that transition is and they're and they're especially valuable if they're generating Bitcoin. Like if there are, if that OP, that business is operating on a Bitcoin standard and generating Bitcoin then it then it is insulated against that and that's the other. Beauty of like Bitcoin is everybody always talks about like whether it's an investment in the Bitcoin or using their Bitcoin or what we just referenced and we got caught in it. It's like. It's always assumed the end state is $20 million Bitcoin. I hold it, it's there. But the reality is life happens in between then and that's where like fix, you know, everybody has their time preference and what they need and that's what money's utility is for. So it's always constantly changing that. It's very rare, you know somebody holds from X to Y at the end state of it. It's like you have all these things happen in the middle and it's always discounted. They're like, oh, this is the opportunity cost. When we get too far down the rabbit hole, it's like. Reality is we probably never see that, or like we see it. But the capital's being spent because you have, like that's what it's used for. It's not meant to just be sitting there like dormant this last. This last five minutes of conversation is just so alien to everybody and. Everybody that's. That's that's invested in the last 40 like or really anyone alive. It's like it's gonna go with the concept of like. He goes, anybody alive. Not even anybody invested, just anybody on the planet Earth. Right now it's just. I know. Anybody alive that's sitting here, think like listening to this and it's like, huh, you can save money and gain purchasing power and do what and and do what? Like where's the passive investing into the S&P 500? Come in like where, where, where is that? And it's like we live in this world where the money debases in perpetuity. The last 10 years the cost of capital has been negative. So the the best bet, the winning bet has been. Has literally to plow into a basket of the 500 biggest companies at any price, every day, regardless of what they're what they do, regardless of what the economic conditions look like. And you print money and it's like going from that world to a world where the money doesn't lose value. I mean it's obviously hyper volatile now, but delivers, you know, positive, you know, compounding positive returns over meaningfully longer time frames. But in a world where like the the, it's the unit of account, it's the denominator and you can just save money, not, you know, not lose your shirt due to inflation. And then if you, if you are so inclined, if you are, you know, if you have an edge, if you think there's an, you know, an opportunity to put capital to work, you conduct economic calculation. You invest capital into equity or a debt instrument with an expected return. And you make that calculation. It's not just like, OK, they're going to plow money into bonds and hope the Fed buys them. It's like, OK, I'm just going to plow money into SP500 and they're going to borrow at a negative cost of capital and buy back their stock. Like, we live in this world that's so disconnected from reality. And so, you know, going back to the transition component, like, who knows exactly what it looks like. But I think even after like this, this whole thing monetizes like after this plays out, there's still people that are going to be really confused on the other side of like, OK, but now what? And it's like, what do you mean? Now what? Like we, we live in a world where like like the game still goes on, right? Like there's still businesses, right? You can still do, just do stuff. Like you just got to do good. Productive stuff. Because the opportunity cost of losing somebody's Bitcoin is very high. You know what? I think on the other side of that, they'll have learned along the way. I think what we're seeing is a great example of the middle is the Gemini Genesis. 3% yield is the problem. Is that people are still thinking in that framework and that's why we always like anchor. And what we're building here is like it's easy to buy the Bitcoin. It's hard to hold it long term and everybody's just trying to rug you along the way, whether it's education, get into this cryptocurrency, get into this ETF and Gemini was a great example. What is it? A bit close to a billion that's just like evaporated because the they had their, you know, whatever account, custody account and then they send emails. There's like you want your 3% yield to financial advisors or individuals and they're like, Oh yes, I need to generate passive income on this thing. Versus sitting on it. And so I think the rugging's along the way. Get on the other side of that as it appreciates. It's like, Oh yeah, this is like, you know, hopefully at least in a wishful thinking that on the other side of that people realize you didn't need, you don't have to go chase risk. Yeah, I mean. Obviously. It's hard. To predict exactly how everybody's going to come to that realization, but it's the hard way. The. Hard way? Yeah, it's. But like, yeah, no, it's. I mean, Parker. Put out a piece last night about like how people are going to begin accepting Bitcoin as payment for their businesses. And I think the way he lays it out in that piece is exactly how it's going to happen. How people are going to come to realization that the mindset from which you operate when you're investing in businesses or going to build a company, it can each individual comes to that decision or that realization individually on the at their own pace and then collectively? In mass it, it just happens at some point in the future where the realization is just hit a critical mass where that's the way things happen and that it yeah, just one man at a time and it's very rational line of thinking is essentially what Parker said. It's like if we've all come to the rational decision that Bitcoin is good money because there's only ever going to be 21 million, it's distributed, so it can't be corrupted and that is extremely logical. And particularly to us and rational to us, like it's just going to take time before the rest of the world comes to that rationality as well. I have a simpler format than that and like I've shared it with you and a lot of people will talk about like circular economy and all that. I think it's just once somebody's cost basis appreciates and we're just so low. You know like IEI buy it at 10K and now it's 30 and now I have some, you know I have some, there's a gap there and I can spend the Bitcoin or it's you know bought in. Most people are relatively gotten out of underwater or pretty flat so they wouldn't spend it. And then the price goes to 6075. Eighty 100K hits a certain threshold. People has have the delta between their cost basis and then they go and use it as a form of money and not a moment before then yeah and. What's happening? To create that delta, it's more people coming to that rational decision and using Bitcoin, not using. It buying, I mean using, I guess by the form of holding, yeah. Yeah, using it as a. Building is using yeah holding's. Using but they're not like out spending Bitcoin and that's causing it to cause the price appreciating. Like people are buying it. They're buying it as as a they're not buying it because they think it's gonna go to 20 trillion or 20 million per coin. They're buying it because letter, Fink said. It's daddy, Daddy, BlackRock said to buy it. Daddy BlackRock, you've got a lot of good nicknames this show. We gotta come up. With a name for these boomers that are coming in. Hey. Hey, hey. We're not an ageist podcast. We love our boomers. There's a lot of boomer listeners out there. We love you guys, OK? What do you think about that? What do you think about the Boomer BlackRock ETF? Should we die? I mean, I cannot wait to read the legal language in that filing. My God, I don't think The funny thing is the crypto, the crypto people were celebrating it all yesterday. And the first thing that I just, I just laughed at was, you know, when you read the Bitcoin filing and there was all these things and that make no sense. You know, they just have to put it because like, you know, worst case scenario, it's like in the case of a fork, like we had the discretion to choose which side and and like and they say all this stuff that's like kind of nonsensical and you're like hacking the Bitcoin network. Like why would you even put that? So when you think through like Proof of stake social slashing like a 51% attack on on all this stuff, you're like like and this is you know, going back to this is a whole rabbit hole. But like the stablecoin issuers and the critical mass of the DEFY apps and all this stuff. And in the case of a fork, right, Or like a protocol level change, they can basically hold the entire network hostage by saying hey, you lose DEFY, you lose literally all of your applications if tethered and circle leaf, right? So if if you're super bullish ETH because they're going to buy like X amount of the network, well, you obviously haven't thought of like there's quite literal stakeholder decision making value on top of that. And that's like, I mean that's just the difference in architecture and proof of stake and you know, quote UN quote like the consensus layer which is like the social layer for ETH versus you know, the Bitcoin network. So that's my two cents. I thought it was pretty funny. Yeah, any. Any. Heath bull that is championing this is completely idiotic. I mean they they don't even have to amass 50%. I think they have to amass some like 33% to have essentially full control over the consensus of the network. And if you don't think Blackrock's going to be applying some KYC AM L travel rule compliance at the protocol level when the governments of the world tell them to like you're completely. ETH and BlackRock, they're like literally a bad match made in heaven. You can even see like, maybe BTC ETH. Like in in terms, you know, like kind of ETH is there for a while until like BlackRock does whatever BlackRock does. And then you're kind of like, oh, I don't own any ETH anymore. That's not my ETH. Or like, they change consensus. Or whatever they do and you're like looking around and like, oh wait. Yeah, yeah. People are bullish. It's already there. It's like it's like Coinbase crack in Binance like and Lido which is again like the governance token is controlled by entirely by USVCS like it's already there. It's already captured on it like at a protocol level. Like Bryan Armstrong scrolled through his retweets, he's talking. They're talking about KYC implementation natively on the network and wallets like not not abstracted to the exchange level but like and they're there. I forget they called it some buzzword. So it's just like if you can't see where all this is going with more coins funneled in to centralized hands. And again, like there's a fundamental change between the network consensus mechanisms where holding, you know, Michael Saylor holding 150,000 Bitcoin doesn't give him any more say over that work than anybody else. He's running a node, you know, anybody running an economic node gets their say, right? So it's just a misunderstanding of how things work if you if you are championing, you know, Eat Proof of Stake funneling into the hands of you know, 3 or 4 institutions. Yeah, I'm looking for the the Mad Odell thread going back to like 2017 where this is all, it's all very tiresome, but bitcoiners have been calling this out for here we go, this is from, yeah, December 2017. I'll pull this up Logan, but this is all very predictable and think when you're dealing with Proof of stake. Chains the the consensus mechanism, like he who has the coins controls the consensus. And so Bitcoin has been warning about this for better part of a decade now, and it's all very predictable again. And I think it's important to bring it up now because it's likely going to this next bull cycle. Bitcoin's not gonna be the only cryptocurrency, the pump all these. Chick Coins will pump as well and the noise is gonna increase significantly. There's gonna be a lot of cheerleaders out there saying, look, ETH Solana, they're all better than Bitcoin. They're appreciating in value, like bitcoins, the Boomer coin. You need to get in on this stuff. But at a fundamental level, just talking about how these networks actually work, if they're to be successful and actually be valuable in the long run, they need to be sufficiently distributed. And any proof of stake chain has no shot in hell of doing it. Like this is all very predictable. As soon as the exchanges can stake your coin, they're gonna accumulate a mass majority of them collectively, just simply because the economies of scale that they can provide the market and provide better yield. And people, at the end of the day, are not gonna care about decentralization. They're gonna care about the yield they're providing, and the exchanges can inherently just provide them more yield due to. Again, their economies of scale. Yeah. This is the this is the the Brian Armstrong 111 last point going back to kind of along with with what Marty's point is it's a quote retweet. It says compliance, innovation coming on chain and he's quote retweeting someone at Coinbase saying tokenization requires all applications have a KYC attestation process. The KYC process today is archaic, like the like the system it was built on. But this is changing KYC, digital ID, attestation status, It's all coming to the wallet. You know, compliance, innovation is what it's called. Yeah, I mean, writing's on the wall here guys. But you know, I digress. Yeah, that's one way to offer unlicensed securities is make sure you're capturing KYC AM L when you're doing it. Yeah, that boy that's going to be. It's going to be ugly for. We'll see what carnage happens in the next cycle and beyond. Marty you you said one word that that I I I'm realizing we it brought up memories of when I was getting into Bitcoin and in the word of shit coins and I and I I think that I probably dismissed Bitcoin, the Bitcoin community as a serious group. For slightly longer than I otherwise would have because bitcoiners were constantly saying shit coins and like just off hand dismissing these these other projects which you know now I I totally get. I totally agree with, but I feel like it it slightly does us a disservice. Not not to like, just don't browbeat me. On air I'm, I'm. Slightly. I'm just like pontificating about like. Thinking about how what would have helped me get into Bitcoin sooner and and you know I I think it all stems from like coming from a yuppie background and like people don't speak disparagingly of their competitors in in in the non crypto world and. I feel like that's a it's like a a a funny thing that I don't know what the answer is to it. Like is it just to to just ram it down everybody's throats and and until until Bitcoin has proven that all these other coins are shit coins or do we try to meet people in the middle. I I don't know. That's just sort of I I get. What you're saying I I agree to a certain extent and I for the longest time, even myself, it was rare for me to say shit coin still is to this day. I just. And Haste said it because I was trying to think of it. I do. 'Cause it's true, I usually say all. Coins cause yeah, I tried to. As well all coins. All coins was the predominant nomenclature up until like 20/13/2014 and then shit coins took over. Well, since we're kind of airing out our our our grievances with how we're going to our nomenclature, the one that I'll, I'd probably shock everybody is like, I kind of feel like we have to figure out a new way to reference ourselves and not be bitcoiners because like, it feels very colty. It's like we're just like, you know, we're just guys we're we're, you know, it's like the bitcoiners. It's like there's going to be this chasm we got to cross where we're even like. It's even things like orange Pilling. I was at we they had a noster event in Nashville and it was a great event and everybody there credible people. But I was like cringing throughout because many people were like, yeah, orange pilled this person. Then I purple pilled this person. I was like, this is not like how, Yeah, you don't want to be. Handing out pills to to you. Know well. Heeled professional investors. The people don't want that. We'll have a. Strategy call we'll come up with wait there's there's there's terms that will will for the pill, for the pill. There'll be a term for the individual that is recognizing a better form of money. There'll be a term and will help incept in the in the market. Yeah, I I. Just got lost in my own thinking of like of. I was appreciating how effective that is for conveying to individuals like like shit coins and an orange Pilling like those are very effective like. Micro metaphors. You know just. It conveys all the rich imagery that you need to know in a single word. But you know, when thinking about the adoption curve for institutions or or the mainstream in general, like are nomenclatures going to have to evolve in some way? It's hard though, because they're all dog shit, but you just. Yeah, let me just. I don't know. I have no answers like. I hate like. Another one I hate. I never refer to myself as a Bitcoin maxi. When I do, I'm like some people would refer to me as a Bitcoin maxi. I hate that term started by Vitalic. By the way, I I. Embrace that one. Why do you hate that one? Oh, that one. I. Won't even. I will never utter That one's the worst. I. I embrace I'm a Bitcoin maximalist like I I, I, I. So Vitalic tried to put that on us right as as like a slur. And I think it is a. I don't know. I I like it because I think I want to maxim maximize, maximize my Bitcoin exposure because then it gets. Then it gets like they call you a maxi. Just like I'm just a dude who likes Bitcoin and wants sound, money and freedom in the world. I'm a I'm a Bitcoin supremacist. Yeah, there is no second best. Yeah, there's there's your subtitle for this for this episode right there, Logan. A white Bitcoin Supremacist? Oh boy. I know he joked with this stuff, but I do think it is important because I think to Jesse's core point, it like hindered. His full full adoption or like in your and there's these things that you hear and you're like, I don't want to be a Bitcoiner. Like I just a dude. Like I don't want to be a. Yeah, that's and that's the way I am. Like, even when people call me a Bitcoin, I'm like, I'm just a dude who likes sound money and I think Bitcoin's the best sound money. I want freedom. You know, I hate, I've always hated labels. When people like, try to call me right wing, left wing, liberal, conservative, I'm like, stop. I'm a dude with my own thoughts. I like Bitcoin. It's it's tough because at the end of the day what we like is, is money that retains its value. So, like, what's the term for that rational? Human being, right? Bitcoin rationalist? Yeah. Sorry, Marty, that was a total. Tangent. I didn't. I didn't mean to go there, but I I just was lost in thought of like, huh, Jesse? Jesse, you have nothing to apologize for. Actually think that was productive. A little tangent there, 'cause it is important. Language is important. Thank you. Was it? Yeah, I was just thinking, yeah, well. Maybe, maybe I'll, I'll take the the lull to say that again if people are interested in in the full potential valuation piece, I think it a big part of why we put this together is so that for for bitcoiners or or for for. Rationalists. Rationalists out there who understand the value of Bitcoin in their portfolio in particular, and want to have something to give to the people in their life, friends, family, colleagues, to help make the scale of what this thing is relevant, salient, understandable. This is a great piece of collateral to be able to hand off to to the folks so. Check it out, at least for that. Also, if people are enjoying Dylan's analysis, and I always do, he writes every week for the The On Ramp Weekly roundup, putting out all of his market analysis thoughts for that week. And if you want to get that in your inbox as the the download of what you should be paying attention to this week because you're not necessarily what would happen. Did it? Did I freeze again? Yeah, you try this again. It was in the middle of the pit. Yeah, well go go check out the On the On Ramp website, go to research and insights, sign up, get your name on the the mailing list for for Dylan's weekly roundup. And we also put out a a piece every weekend that's just general Bitcoin education or? Truth from the commoner It doesn't benefit on ramp, but. Marty's new website, Awesome Thumbnails. I was chatting with Jesse yesterday. I was like, I don't know how you're doing or if you're purposely pulling it, but if you had the nice Dylan's piece this past week on the thumbnail, had the nice on ramp terminal chart, yeah. Very good for. Social sharing that I like to think it. Does help on that exposure? It's. Oh, it does. But I just meant like, go sign up for Truth for the commoner. There's a lot of good information coming TFTC. Dot IO, yeah, become a member of all sites. We're gonna win, gentlemen. And bringing it back to the valuation framework, the webinar you guys have coming up and using this as an asset to pass along, I think it's extremely valuable because historically still to this day people see the price of Bitcoin. So you go up to 65,000, fall down to 15,000 and they just see these numbers on the chart that are extremely volatile throughout the 1st 15 years of Bitcoin's existence. Or like what is this thing worth? Why is it going up like this? Is it just some some price chart that goes crazy and the numbers get higher and then fall fall lower? Like why is it doing that? Like to have a framework from which to explain like This is why this is happening. Here's the potential addressable market of this asset and why you're seeing these volatile spikes and crashes in price over the 1st 15 years. Because it's people trying to appropriately price this asset in real time. The first time humanity's priced A monetary asset in the digital age globally. At the same time that's driving the volatility. You may see these price movements on a chart and think, what the hell, it's not worth anything. I think this piece does a really good job of laying out the landscape of the potential addressable market of Bitcoin and why the price is moving this way. Yeah, so if you're if. You're rationalist if you're. Rationalist out there and have other rationalists. You want to understand Bitcoin over Thanksgiving. I think the date is 12 the December 1st that the webinar. Will occur with Jesse and our Head of Strategy and Research, Brian Cabela's and then a special guest TBD when that'll be announced. Yeah, Specialist, could be you, Marty, could be you. You don't want me on that call. Yeah, I'll be like this. This is too bearish. 10 mil. It's gonna be 100 at least. What was I gonna say? It's something else to say for oh, gentlemen, I don't wanna, I don't wanna like pick the pico top here and cause cause a big price dump. But this could be like the best Thanksgiving we've had in a few years, you know? Yeah. True. We're gonna be, we're gonna be the Kings at the table. Maybe that's the last part. Is Are we at 40K by Thanksgiving 37252 right now? I'll. Say this is. Where? I I just have disbelief like and and I'm glad that I'm I'm, I'm not on the sidelines like I was in 2019 when I thought I was going to be clever and buy lower because then I was forced to buy in like when this was happening. And for anyone out there who's in that same position. It feels a lot better when you finally get back in. So that's my two cents, I I fall for the disbelief even now of like, I simultaneously believe that we're going to $10 million per Bitcoin in the next couple decades in today's dollars. And yet, I have trouble believing we'll be at 40,000 at Thanksgiving. It's very. Pragmatic. Very. Oh, you never know. You never know. Who knows? We'll see. I mean, we've got, I think 7 more days. Six more days figure out if that omnibus approval of the ETFs comes out. If that happens, we could be at like 50K by Thanksgiving. I think we could have like another 10K candle, weekly candle. One thing's for sure, it'll be. Bitcoin rationalist will have a much better time at Thanksgiving dinner than they've had the last two years. Yeah, all the father in laws looking at their looking at the rationalist being like, who did my wife marry and be like? Yeah, this year you're gonna be like she married a good one. Don't worry Sir. I'm gonna take care of your daughter. OK? Dylan, do you have anything you want to wrap up with? No, I I mean. Yeah, I'd do the weekly letter with these guys. Good cadence. I mean it was it was a fun rip. Don't really have too much else to add. Don't have any short term price predictions. I've learned to kind of I've learned over the years to kind of just yeah, it's not it's kind of irrelevant. So yeah, held a rip. Appreciate you having me on. As always. That's good. So let's find a background with less gold next time, OK? We'll. Work on it, I kid. OK, gentlemen, it's a pleasure as always. Dylan most most tenured guest on this show, almost becoming the 4th, 4th host. Mitch is gonna want to come back on he He hit me up the last time after his third episode. He's like, am I the tide with Dylan for the most like? Not anymore, Mitch. You gotta get a good mic too, if you're listening. Yeah, let's go. Go forth. Be rational. Enjoy your weekend. That's all we got today.