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Before we get into the episode, a quick reminder that the last trade is for informational and entertainment purposes only and nothing should be construed as investment or legal advice. Now for a word from on RAMP on RAMP is a Bitcoin asset management platform built on multi institution custody. We serve high net worth individuals, institutional investors and financial intermediaries with the best in class suite of products which include multi institution custody, a spot Bitcoin fund on RAM, wealth for Rias and private wealth services for high net worth individuals. Leveraging our partnership with Bit Go and other industry leaders on Ramp's, Multi Institution Custody is a first of its kind institutional grade vault requiring two of three institutions at any point in time to sign once a client's unique permissions have been met. Our multi institution vaults utilize cold storage, key signing and authentication at the direction of the client to maximize security for client assets. 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Last episode of the year full on ramp Rep We got Brian Cabela's with us gentlemen. How are we doing? We're. Doing well. Thanks for thanks for having me, boys. I don't think that the fact that we had to like assume that you will come on it many times. Soon. Last time, Brian, we got into some very spicy stuff, so we'll see if this goes anywhere near that stuff. No. If you recall that was on rabbit hole recap. We kept that for the freeze. It it was both the last time we talked about Binance and we some some individuals on this spot thought they were going belly up. I I was wrong on that one but. You know. The market rebounding the market. What's the BNB margin call looking like right now? Yeah, right, 'cause they really defended 200 and and that that was kind of the, the price point that I had penciled in as like they might be in trouble if the price goes under there, $200 per BNB and and then Bitcoin rallying kind of saved them, I think. I don't know. But like, see, it's like C ZS, like a Lannister. He just always pays his debts. He just continues to meet his obligations. Well, you know everybody. Matt says that the suits just wanted to to go under underwater and he just was standing all the arrows and he's going to sit in the background while his company just Rakes in dough next year. So one in the shadow the CFTC, the head of the CFTCI forget his name, it's escaping me right now. He did. I think it was a Bloomberg or CNBC interview last week and said that he'll likely do jail time. Looks like they're going after some federal prison time for CZ. Wow, that that would be quite something. I did see that there is criminal like prosecution that they're trying. I think that that's unfortunate in the sense of it's more of probably like a poster child for it versus like actual substance. But yeah, it's like, don't. Don't fight the Fed, don't fight the government. Or don't. I mean, if the laws are unjust. You you have it dude Dee Dee to disobey. Not saying that CZ does CZ. What's CZZZZ? Probably engaged in a lot of crime, particularly market spoofing. Wash trading bunch of. Other money laundering. Is that, is that what he is that what he got in trouble for? I thought it was just referencing, you know, the traditional like, I mean OFAC sanctions and KYC, which is obviously a crime, but I don't. Was he like, was he manipulating the market? And is it? If he's manipulating the market, what market? Yeah, I'm not aware of what the the government has accused him of versus what he has been. You know, finance has been rumored to have done. So I'm fuzzy on where the line is drawn, but I know that there is ample speculation and screenshots of internal chats you know, talking about, like how they effectively are money laundering operation for, you know, with regard to some clients in in sanctioned countries. Yeah. The interesting thing there is, I feel like they probably did very similar to what Arthur Hayes did, where like they didn't have the dollar rails, but they had, you know, money coming in and money coming out. FTX, they're all like in the same area of the market, this opaque version of like knowing your customer what's happening. But the one firm that we know for certain was running a Ponzi and taking everybody's money is the is SPF, everything else. Like, I don't know, like what's been proven. In Celsius, I think it's pretty clear it's Celsius running Ponzi. Yeah. Maybe a block fight too. Is isn't it scary that how like you just mentioned Celsius, I completely forgot about them And like in a year, just the craziness that can happen where you're just like it's kind of, it concerns me for next year because we're going to see crazy things happen again and we're just going to like Doom to repeat. Yeah, is is a great point though that like I mean a year ago was the bottom and it felt so awful, right. And that that just doom and gloom was was just a year ago and looking forward a year you know like the momentum of swung the pendulum is going in the other direction and we're probably right now at that like peak rate of change towards in terms of like sentiment from negative towards positive and we'll we'll we could be downright giddy a year from now. Do you? It's interesting. I, I, I kind of think we're in this weird spot where it's like eerily quiet like we're in this sort of Bitcoin echo bubble and chamber. And you know we know that all the things that have happened over the past year that really position us in a in a pretty good spot going forward. But when you you talk to people outside of that bubble and it's still, there's still so much unawareness about what's going on the fundamentals that's. So exciting because because all these things are like they're writing us on the wall for what's going to happen next year. And yet 99% of the world doesn't know just because they're not paying attention, because they don't want to consider Bitcoin a real asset. Like what? The incredible information asymmetry Just because people want to write it off as Monopoly money and not pay attention to the mechanics and and the ETF approval coming? Yeah. I mean, a year from now we could be doing the show with our shirts off because we were so ecstatic and. Well, before the shirts off episode we Jesse's getting us, just reminding you we have to do something special for the having. Like it just just has to be. I mean, it is Jesse's favorite event in all of human history that happens once every four years, so. 24 hour stream. Pretty much favorite event in human history. You can't say that. You can't say that, but but the the the most exciting future known event possible. There's no other known event in the future that's more exciting. I'll say that. I will claim that. What about your wedding? My wedding already happened. But that was but there was at that in the future planned it's I'm just messing around just to make sure. If that were a good time, the wedding, the wedding took precedent, yeah. Real quick question. We talk about a year from now, being autumn, being feeling so bad. I kind of feel, and I may be wrong, but like the summer was even worse because it was like the doldrums. But what? What would you guys say? Was it like this time last year when the markets collapsing? Or is it? Because we knew Bitcoin was fine, it was mainly the institution, right? There was, there was a weird element to a full year ago where it was like, we know that none of this has to do with Bitcoin. So it was like somewhat cathartic in a way, where it was like, all right, we're finally sort of wash washing out some of the bad actors here. Like, this is a a necessary means to an eventual end here. And then, yeah, to your point, like the summer was kind of like, OK, we got rid of those guys, but now we're still kind of just crabbing along here like. Yeah, talking. We're trying to talk to people about Bitcoin. People are raising capital, trying to drum up business, and they're like, yeah, we're good. Everybody just died. Like the thing's over. That's 'cause it was so fresh in people's mind. Like the FTX, the SPF trial haven't even hadn't even happened yet. Yeah, the summer. That's why. That's why summer doldrums are real. Just go to a beach. You enjoy your time. You lay low, try to be as productive as possible. Then you pop up in the fall. SBF goes to jail. The ETF approval seems imminent. You start beating the drum again. Having's four months away. The boys are back in town. Let's go. We'll see how that strategy works for this summer. You're gonna be like this. Oh, we kid. So we do have a lot of notes on our Slack channel for this episode. I think before we jump into either a year in review or a year ahead perspective, there's a lot going on in traditional markets. Michael, you drop, you dropped a long list of bullet points that I actually do want to read through because it is pretty insane just to highlight what's going on in the markets outside of Bitcoin right now. Then we can tie how Bitcoin is an alternative to this after we have a discussion on that, but it is pretty crazy. Last week obviously you had Jerome Powell come out post FOMC meeting and announced that they weren't gonna raise rates anymore, but more importantly began to signal more of a dovish tune. There are many theories on why he pivoted rather quickly. Earlier in the month, I believe December 3rd, he was adamant that rate cuts were not around the corner. That tune seemed to change last week. A lot of commentary around that and here are the headlines since that happened last week and somebody wrote. I've been working in finance for 15 years and this was one of the craziest weeks I have ever seen. The S&P rally is 2.7% now, only 1.6% away from a record high. The Dow and the NASDAQ 100 hit all time highs last week. the Fed held rates unchanged. Expects expects 3 rate cuts in 2024, which is amplified in their dot plot, which is one of the stupid graphs stupidest grass in the world. Fed member John Williams goes on CNBC and says premature to be thinking about March. Rate cut volatility hits a four year low. Retail investors are buying the most stocks since March of 2022. Jim Cramer says the recession is not coming. Apple hits a new record high. China's central bank injects record monthly amounts into the financial system. Germany, France and India stock markets hit all time highs. USCPI at 3.1% year on year in November in line with expectations. Goldman Sachs expects Fed to start cutting rates in March, Expects 2 back-to-back rate cuts of 25 bips. Alibaba hit a 52 week low. Pfizer hit a 10 year low. SEC holds a meeting with BlackRock to discuss its spot BIC weight ETF. JP Morgan says Ethereum will outperform Bitcoin in 2024. Jamie just ruining his reputation in real time. It must be nice to be the biggest bank in the United States. You can say stupid stuff like this with impunity. 30 year mortgage rates now below 7%. US retail sales increased by 30 bips in November. It was expected to be a -10 bip drop, an all time high of Americans spend spending more than 50% of their income on rent, which is insane. Restaurant prices are up 2024% since January 2020. Former President Trump says the US will have one of the greatest economic years the nation has ever recorded if he's elected in 2024. It's great. It's great campaign fodder. There was a bill introduced in the Senate that Wood Forest big investors to sell all the single family homes they own. Over 10 years and US consumers are spending at record lows and economists are mystified, struggling to forecast an endpoint. Crazy Americans. The economy's better. How come you're not spending? Where you guys thoughts on all these headlines? Chaotic mix. Yeah, I I have a lot of thoughts on all that. It is a chaotic mix and it's it's interesting that it, you know it paints this picture of recovery like you know and the Fed is even kind of taking a victory lap about how they successfully achieved their soft landing. Look at us, we solved it but I have seen some some headlines floating around from from like 2007 and and there were quite a few like similar narratives going around in mid two 2007. You know, which is to say like historically when when rates are cut, it is when shit starts to hit the fan the the the wheels start to fall off only when rates are cut. And and it's not to say that the rate cutting causes that, but more likely that the Fed and policy makers realize, oh shit things are not looking good under the surface time for us to start easing, to try to you know stimulate the economy. But you know as we've seen over the last few years, when they change rates, it takes 18 months for that impact to flow through the the economy. So they can cut rates now, but that won't really immediately change what's happening in the economy. We're we're what's happening in the economy is based on where you know what rates have been over the last 18 months which is very high relative to where they were for the prior few years. So the pain is still working its way through the system and that's why the consumer is hurting and yet stocks are up almost near an all time high. How and why? Well, a big part of that story is we've been printing a lot of new debt to service our interest expense. We're having to issue new debt and it plus our deficits are already massive. So you know that on on this show I've talked about how I had to have to revisit the numbers, but we were on pace for right now, but recently we were on pace for like $6 trillion in additional national debt for the 12 months following the debt ceiling being lifted back in in late spring. So where's where's the money coming from to bid up the stock market? Well it's it's all this new liquidity in the system that is, is coming in and and and the reverse repo facility is still being drawn down. It's not yet at 0, but it's close. So that's part of the part of the liquidity coming into the system is, is capital flowing out of reverse repo and having to bid something, having to go from reverse repo into into some kind of bond. And so there's there's actually liquidity at this moment and largely because of all the debt dynamics that are playing out. So that that's why the consumer's hurting because interest rates are high and and the economy is actually in pain and yet it looks like things are recovering because there's actually just a bunch of liquidity bidding up stocks and and bonds right now. Yeah. And I've got a couple of charts to really lean into this. Number one, the disconnection between stock markets, financial markets and the pain that individuals are feeling. And then #2, the premature celebrations that may be going on. So look and pull up the, the second chart I put in there in that one. I mean, this is a pretty scary stat. The percentage of Americans married by birth decade. So if you were born in the 90s, that's around 30% right now. And for comparison, in the 1940s, about 95 ninety, 95% of people were married by the age of 30 and the millennials, that that percentage is around 30%. So 1/3, at least of what it was in the 1940s, which signals that something is structurally broken in the economy. I say in this tweet, hint, it's the money. People are not forming families. There's a number of of factors that play into this. But I think economics, economic stress is probably #1. And then the other chart you can pull up Logan, which is the second one, just highlights that we may be repeating exactly what happened in the 1970s charts from EGA and Tony, which in that decade this. One's remarkable. Yeah. Brian, why don't you comment on this? I mean I just think it's, it's it's wild to think that you know the people of the Fed and and the government have to know this chart, right. Like they know what happened in the 70s and so they're they're sort of, you know, engineering this quote UN quote, soft landing, but with full knowledge that, you know, inflation could sort of get more aggressive again. And the reality is, you know, I think at at sort of at best CPI is a flawed metric and at worst it's highly manipulated. And so you know, the reality of the situation is that the pain being felt by the average consumer is real to to Jesse's earlier point. But they're they're sort of they've been able to massage the sort of perception of the economy through things like CPI employment data that's double counting people or even just you know going back to the stock market sort of seem to be floating suspended in in in air given you know interest rates have been high for the past year, year and a half. I think part of that is the concentration of the S&P and I think I, I posted a chart in the chat if you want to pull that one up, Logan. But this one is kind of wild to me. It's from ensemble capital and it's just shows basically the the, you know, the vast majority of contribution to the S&P 500 is is 7 stocks, right. And so the average company out there or you know not even the average, you know some of the top 500 companies in the world in the US are probably you know flat to down over this period. And this is this starts in 2019. And so the vast majority of sort of stock market performance has been. 7:00 or so companies and I think it's almost a convenient way for them to say, well, you know, the paint isn't really here because at the end of the day like the, the main barometer I think for the Fed, whether whether they'll ever admit it or not or not, is the stock market. And so if this can sort of continue to float, it helps their sort of soft landing narrative in a weird way, despite, you know, if you look under the surface, it's really not indicative of what's happening in the economy. Yeah, the stock market is not the economy. You think people would internalize this, especially after 2008 and years that have come and gone before. I mean 2020-2021 stock market roared and there was just this inflation demon lurking in the background and that. I mean, that's a big quip. Was that Michael? I wanna say, do we think something like structurally broke with this, like pivot, You know, we saw a gold rip about a week before and then they have. They weren't. They were hinting hawkish, and then they just completely pivoted on that. Yeah, well that's, I mean there's a number of theories out there. One is that something structurally broke and they're aware of it and the rest of the market isn't, which is hard to believe cause the market usually finds these things out first and then the second is simply we're heading into an election year. Janet Yellen in President Biden's administration, who have been publicly countersapling Jerome Powell for months, sort of had a discussion with him. We're like, yo, we're gonna need you to play ball here. He bent the knee. That's what I think is most likely. Yeah, I mean I find it fascinating. We talk about Bitcoin as being a, you know, the last free market and it kind of being the Canary in the coal mine, both upwards and downwards when liquidity is getting stripped or on the other side of it. It started running weeks before this happened, which is interesting. Maybe that's the market alarm bell. Jesse have thoughts on this? Yeah, it's the last functioning fire alarm in in global markets. So yeah it does tend to hint at what's really happening and the and the and yeah the the the 1970s inflation parallel. So something we we put out a piece on in the spring pointing out like this is exactly what happened in the 70s because they would they did a few rounds of trying to fight inflation by hiking interest rates and what you're really doing then is you're hurting consumption and and that helps bring down inflation because it's part of the story for inflation is, is how much demand there is. So you can destroy demand and and bring down inflation. But you know that that's one of the variables in the others is you know the the amount of money, the money supply. And so you know every every every good represents some tiny percentage of the existing money supply. And when you increase the money supply then the nominal number of of units that like a a car costs goes up, right. So the money supply matters but but also demand side matters for inflation. So you can kneecap the economy by hiking interest rates and and making people feel pain and they'll slow down their spending and bring down inflation. But then you create a crisis in doing so and then you end up having to ease up and stimulate your way out of the crisis. And that's kind of the pattern that happened a couple times in the 70s until they finally, you know, were able to commit to super high interest rates to to really break the back of inflation. And so we're kind of on the same trajectory here. And then kind of what I've been expecting for the last year or so of these, this interest rate hike that we've been living under is working to hurt the consumer and that brings down inflation, you know, the rate of inflation. But it creates a problem. It creates a, a brewing crisis that requires an injection of liquidity and then everything roars again to like you know, the COVID stimulus again and we'll have the next round of inflation if and when that occurs. And you know, I think it's just like AI think it's human nature is part of it. I think it's like it's no surprise that we're following the same trajectory of the 70s. It's it's that we all have a we're all dumbfounded at how we could possibly follow the same pattern of of, you know, group think and group psychology playing out the same as it as it has before. But it ends up playing out the same because that's how groups work and think together. And you end up taking the same short term measures like hurting the consumer to try to bring down inflation while sowing the seeds for a medium term crisis that results in a medium to long term, you know, inflationary stimulus. So we're just following the same pattern again. And yeah, brace yourselves. Yeah. Yeah, I think part, part of what I. Like to anchor too is is somewhat zooming out and and not ignoring the sort of near term realities of interest rate hikes and and cuts. But but Jesse you talk about this a lot and it's it's you know the long term reality of the situation is that they need to inflate away the debt like that. That is that is what we know and and sort of the the trajectory and how we end up there is much harder to predict with any sort of accuracy because again these are people in a room pulling levers at the end of the day. And so I think what I like to anchor to is, is the long term what we know in that in order for you know this sort of fiscal insanity to continue they need to, they need to inflate away that debt at some point. And so that means more printing and it means more continued debasement of the currency and that's that's what ties back to the Bitcoin thesis is this you know known absolutely scarce asset that you can store your wealth in. So for me it's it's not that I not that I ignore the the near term because I think it's important and certainly you know commentary that people care about in markets but I just try to anchor to what we actually know and what we know this sort of eventual reality situation is and and that means they they must print so own something scarce it. It it's such a good reminder that it's impossible to know what's going to happen near term, and that the further out you look, the more the math dictates what ends up happening. And the math is knowable. But who knows what happens in the next year? Yeah. Brian, going off of that, help us. You're the closest, most recent in the institutional space. Going back to your experience at BBH. What do you think like is going on in rooms right now when you think about the macro sentiment? Well, we just discussed all the things Marty went through then. Independent of any belief in Bitcoin, this ETF thing has to be being discussed, right? And what? What is it? What is that looking like heading into 2024? I mean, I think for the most part there's probably a good swath of the Trapfi industry that believes that the Fed can engineer a soft landing because generally speaking they don't think about CPI and inflation like we do and and the long term inevitability of of these things. They tend to be more short term oriented and and trading oriented and more so willing to ignore the long term and focus on the short term. So I think there's some element of that there. But to your point on the ETFSI think it'll be very interesting to see how this plays out. Because for a long time I've sort of thought, you know, there's there's sort of functional mechanics that are, you know, going to be positive for bitcoin's price that come out of these ETFs, right? Like these issuers are going to be forced to go buy spot Bitcoin. But to me, the the sort of almost more important point of these things getting proved is the shift in narrative and the shift in sentiment around this being a legitimate asset. And I think for better or worse like the approval stamp of the US federal government on and the SEC on a you know Bitcoin product will go a long way in terms of forcing people to open their eyes to this thing and and rethink their sort of pre consist pre you know preconceived notions and biases about it. So to me like yes it's it's clearly going to be a positive near term price catalyst when these things are approved. But the the more important point is sort of the narrative shift and you know being forced to think about it in the context of a portfolio or the context of you know other ETFs which may own may own Bitcoin. So that that to me is what I've sort of anchored to as as the more important outcome of of what we're about to see in the in the next month or so is that narrative shift is that sort of you know people being forced to wake up in a way to like this thing is real and there's now sort of a stamp of approval on it as a thing that you can own. But yeah, that's. Yeah, I love that. It's like, it's like FDA approval. It's like you're forced now to have. An opinion? You're you're forced like from a norming perspective and institutional perspective, you have to have. You're gonna be forced to have an opinion, whether it's rat poison or you might need to sprinkle a little bit on your 6040 to make sure you can, you know, hit your your benchmark the next year. Is this a whole new era for Bitcoin? Is this a demarcation line for what will be looked at? Look back on as like a a pivotal point in Bitcoin's history. If you're sitting on a throne this time next year, I think so. I think I was looking at you when you said that and it's like if the background's like paved in gold and we'll we'll know that the demarcation, if it's the same seat, I'm not sure. Hey, this is a pre 1971 antique chair I bought specifically because it was bought before it went off the gold standard. It wasn't cheap. It's very comfortable from an antique from an antique in Charleston, SC. Very great city, good good aesthetics. But yeah, I I think it I think it absolutely will be a demarcation point largely for lack of a better demarcation point. You can you can point to the halvings and I will continue to as you know the the real phase change from 1 arrow to the next. But from the from the mainstream perception of this asset, I think it will be like it will be before before the the powers that be blessed Bitcoin as being legitimate and after you know that that's how it's going to be perceived and viewed historically by by the people who aren't yet interested in Bitcoin in particular, which is the vast majority of people. And so I think that I, I, you know, it's it's almost the AOL moment for Bitcoin because, you know, with the Internet it started in in 1969, I think maybe it was 79, 79. That was like the first real instance instance of the Internet as we know it. And then it took from there 15 years for AOL to come along, roughly 15 years. And then AOL changed everything, right? It made it accessible. It made it made the Internet go mainstream because before then you had to deal with setting up your own server and all that and and you know connecting to the Internet the hard way. So you know this will be that this will be the AOL moment for Bitcoin and it will only be clear in retrospect and at the same time it will be underwhelming the the day, the month that it happens. I I think it's just going to be clear that you know the the 2024 bull market into 2025 that I think is catalyzed by the halving and not anything else catalyse without having but amplified by a switch from QT to QE and also amplified by the additional demand stream of ETFs trying to pile in pile capital into Bitcoin. All those things will be happening next year and that that'll matter a ton to amplifying the bull market. That ends up happening, I believe. But you know, it won't happen day one, it won't happen month one. It'll just be clear in retrospect. Thanks for tuning in to The Last Trade. If you're enjoying the show and want to dive deeper, check us out at on rampbitcoin.com where you'll find a full suite of institutional grade research and analytics, including our recently published white paper, Bitcoin's full potential valuation, and our new tool, the On Ramp Terminal. Now back to the show. Yeah I'm. I'm curious what you guys think about sort of the juxtaposition of this one on you know on one hand you have this regulatory stamp of approval that seems imminent but at the same time you have the Elizabeth Warrens of the world proposing bills that are pretty purely an attack on on Bitcoin and people's rights to use Bitcoin. And I think, you know, I've, I've been trying, I've been wrestling in my head with the past week of like OK, what are the Silver Linings of of something like this? And I think there are a few. I think one is, you know, Elizabeth Warren's position has been anti Bitcoin but also pro CBDC. And I think that's a pretty easy, easy argument to win in, in sort of the realm of public perception around CBDC as being the potential terrible path to go down in terms of sort of the encroaching surveillance state. So that that's one element that I think we have sort of in in our favor. The other one is like, you know, if something like her bill were ever to be passed and put into law, I think you know ultimately we still have courts in this country and people will have to fight these things. And I think ultimately it comes down to like you know, the Second Amendment is on our side or you know the 1st Amendment is on our side in terms of free speech and and code, you know is speech. And I think that's a fight that we'll eventually have to take on. So I would say like it, it's just an interesting time because you know on one hand we we have these approvals coming, but at the other time, you know, at the same time we have you know some real sort of proposed attacks. You know, people have talked about Elizabeth Warren's track record, poor track record of of getting bills passed, but just the just the existence of something like that. It tried to, you know, I've just been trying to think about the ways in which, you know, maybe this is actually a good thing in some sense. Like, you know, if the Elizabeth Warrens of the world weren't crafting these bills, I think you could make the argument like Bitcoin wasn't working as intended. Like the fact that that someone is coming out and trying to, you know, attack this open, open source, globally accessible network with a bill that, you know, at the end of the day would promote ACBDC. Like to me that's actually a strange indicator that like Bitcoin is doing something right and it's a fight that we're going to have to fight. So I, I mean I would say we're still firmly in the then they fight you stage of things here. So it's just an interesting juxtaposition given like the ETF excitement, but curious if you guys think about that. Yeah, that I, I, I do. I want to chip in with that. This makes me think about a quote from the cypherpunks. The the early cypherpunks of the The government is not a monolithic thing. That is your enemy is a multitudinous thing That is your enemy. And and I I think part of that is like Elizabeth Warren is, is trying to fight Bitcoin in her way. And there are other interests that are approaching Bitcoin in different ways, some fighting Bitcoin, some neutral. But I think there's also like a capitalist element that wants to make money off of Bitcoin. And that's the Trojan horse for, you know, how Bitcoin eventually wins is that there's this incentive for people to make money by adopting Bitcoin. And so people will do that. And Larry Fink is one of those people, in my opinion. And that, you know, makes Bitcoin available to a broader slice of the population. And yet it does come with some problems of, you know, is it actually Bitcoin? But, but it will open up a lot of people's eyes to Bitcoin being a valuable asset. And some people will take, you know, like take take their Bitcoin off of an ETF and and go buy real Bitcoin. And now we have more Bitcoin adopters. But all all that to say that I think we're kind of in a race between interests, people who want to to kill Bitcoin and people who want to make money by by harnessing Bitcoin for their own ends. But you know, as we all know, ultimately you you you don't. Yeah, Bitcoin doesn't serve you. You end up serving Bitcoin by by spreading the message of Bitcoin. I'll take this at a slightly different direction in which the timing of all this, where there's the imminent ETF approval and the posturing from the Treasury and Elizabeth Warren and her like, I can see it like being the attack where you have Elizabeth Warren pushing this bill And yes, she's had piss poor, a piss poor record of actually getting these bills passed. But it does seem like she's got a lot of cosigners on this particular bill and some narrative momentum using bug data, which we've talked about in the past. And I could easily see a situation where the ETF gets approved, this law gets passed and then Elizabeth Warren's like, yeah, you can have your Bitcoin where you can only access it via these avenues that that we deem appropriate. So that's what I worry about. And then they fight you and then stage materializing and I could easily see that happening in the next 12 to 18 months, which again we've been saying this on rabbit hole recap. That's the disconcerting. It's a disconcerting idea because black rocket come, get approved. All the other ETFs approved bags pump miraculously. Everybody's all fat and happy and rich. The law gets passed, Then people are like, maybe it's OK, maybe we can just get the ETF. I'm rich. Whatever. It's gonna sweat off my back. I've got all my money. And that's the ethical, mental, moral dilemma that BIC orders I think are going to face in the next two years is you're going to be extremely wealthy if you got in early enough. And the government here in the United States is going to attack it and create these avenues. The theory, It's my theory. I think it could happen. And then we're going to have that sort of decision to make. Are we going to bend the knee and say, all right, I'm rich, I'll just have my Bitcoin in the ETF and live off my gains? Or are people going to fight for the freedom to actually hold Bitcoin and possess it yourself outside the purview of the state? Yeah. I mean, I think the beauty of it is like Jesse reference, this whole thing's aligned based on incentives. And so everybody's going to do what they should do and they should do it. This reminds me of the same conversation, different scale, but ordinals and transaction fees. It's like at the end of the day, people are just going to use Bitcoin, what it was for. If it happens, it happens. People are going to give it up. They're not going to give it up. The reality is talk about like prohibition and they could never ban booze. And Bitcoin is infinitely more valuable than booze. So there's nothing's going to be banned. It's just going to be harder to use and everybody's going to have their decisions to make. But at the other side of it, it's like, in my mind, it feels like water just like flows down one way, like gravity goes. And so these are just periods we have to live through and everybody makes their own decision and they go through and you do what's best based on your incentive model. But it's part of like, the beauty of like Center Warren probably has like Bitcoin eventually, and then that's how we get her. And it's just it's just a natural progression, but it's very valid like on Margie's side what he's referencing because it very much could happen. But at the same time that's when you go back to states rights and they can be able to tell like in my mind it feels we're having discussions last week with people working with the politicians in Texas and they referenced over 50 the Republicans that are traditionally like against Bitcoin. But they're looking at the angle. What Brian said about, well, it's basically freedom money against like CBDC's and so these things will ultimately happen. And then it feels like Texas taking people's Bitcoin seems very similar to saying like we're taking your gold at this point. And so we are going to start to see those states rights go and that we're already seeing people move to these certain places. So I have, I've hoped that independent what happens, the market will kind of settle itself out and while it won't be you know seamless, we'll we'll be on the other side of it eventually and everybody's going to be better off because we're going to have a tool that they can use. Yeah, I agree. I agree with that. And to be clear, like, I think we're going to win this battle. But I do think it is willing to materialize. People can't control Bitcoin and they're going to try everything they can to stop it. I I have this fool's hope, I guess, that that Larry Fink and people like him become useful tools, useful allies of of Bitcoin. The the Trojan horse metaphor here. Uncle Larry's going to be like you're going to siphon all the AUM of people holding Bitcoin and into my funds. Yeah, write the law. Pass it a lobby for that. Well, yeah, yeah, there's there's that part too, I suppose. Yeah, I mean the the thing that we, we talked to this like 6 months in the summer about Uncle Larry, you know like Uncle Larry, Uncle Brian over at Coinbase. Like these guys are de facto, like I don't even know if it's debatable like extensions of the government they've been blessed, apply them to operate. They hand over all the information when required. Specifically Coinbase, they're the last exchange standing. So I don't, I don't know, I don't, I don't. I wouldn't generally push back on like that. I I mean I just don't see how Larry Fink is pro Bitcoin at the end of the day. Yeah, I think he's pro his pocketbook. Yeah, I think that's right. But you know, I, I, I don't know. This is the fool's hope of, like there's so many capitalists out there that want to use the American rule of law to say this is a commodity and I want to sell it because I want to profit from it. And so that's my right and and how dare you try to take that away from me? I'm, I won't let you. And at the same time, there's a bunch of congressmen who start to allocate to Bitcoin. You know, we already have a handful of them. It won't be Senator Warren. I think Senator Warren will be the very last one. But it doesn't matter if we get her. It matters if we get 40 Congress people, you know, to have a Bitcoin allocation because they're excited about the halving or whatever, you know, or they want to have a hedge against the national debt because they've become concerned about the national debt. And. And so it's that that intransigent minority idea of like you don't, you don't win by winning over the the king of the enemy, you know, but you win by slowly winning over the people until it becomes, you know, impossible to go against that the people's will. And again that's the fool's hope of like I believe that ultimately you you can't go fully against you know the the strong passionate and and base that has numbers sufficient numbers on any topic. And you know like the kosher kosher foods is like the classic example of the intransigent minority where like we all, we all eat kosher foods because it matters to a tiny group of people like kosher salt. We you know we have kosher salt and and we all buy it whether or not you know it because it matters to a tiny group of people and it matters a lot to them. And so I hope that I hope that Bitcoin falls into that category and and it's possible that I'm you know just falling for the fool's hope here and and that Marty's idea of a a monolithic more sinister plot to end Bitcoin or or sub subvert it is possible too. Well, to be clear, they can't end Bitcoin or subvert Bitcoin. They'll just prevent Americans from participating fully and that's that's. A that's an that's an important distinction, right? Because like going back to to Michael's analogy of of prohibition, which I loved. Not only is Bitcoin like much harder to enforce a ban on than than alcohol, but it's also a global in in where he thinks where this this is an international asset. So it's going to be very difficult for them to do anything that actually, you know, impairs the network to any real extent. They're just going to you know make Americans lives much harder if they want to store their value in Bitcoin and and that's unfortunate but I'm I I tend to be somewhat optimistic like Jesse is like I think our numbers are growing in terms of you know Congress people who understand this thing and are you know hopefully going to be willing to fight for it because the the sort of facts and narratives are on our side at the end of the day. Like Elizabeth Warren is quoting literally false data to argue. Her point? Like, you know, it's just it's just a matter of time. It's a matter of continuing to shift that sentiment. You know, Bitcoin is is good for the world. It's freedom, money, and and you know, the reality is what Elizabeth Warren wants to usher in is a much scarier future. Yeah. And and to be clear, like what Jesse referenced, I believe like the intolerant minority, all of the, the, the margins accrue and it'll move over. What I was referring to is I think like when we get off this podcast, there's like a group chat with Jamie Dimon Warren, Brian Armstrong and Larry Fink, like all just joking around about like what's going to go down next week at the Christmas party or whatever. Like that's that's what I'm I'm referring to. It's like to think that they all aren't have a certain like agenda. Maybe it's not lockstep, but that's where that's kind of the angle. It's like, I don't think those are our friends. I think we have friends, but I don't think it's any of those four. No, I don't either. They have ulterior motives, if you will. But I I want to be clear. I'm very optimistic too. Again, I think we'll win this battle. I think the incentives are too strong. Our friends are the incentives, right? Our friends are the the incentives of Bitcoin plus the 1st Amendment. And so, so long as those two things are in place, like Bitcoin prevails, I think. I don't know if you've checked in on the federal government, but they don't really the Constitution that much anymore. Yeah, the 1st Amendment is being being encroached on in various ways. But but you know, I don't know if if that falls, if the heart of the 1st Amendment falls, then then the US has completely fallen. And and I have faith that people. I have faith that Americans care deeply about the 1st Amendment. And maybe that faith is misplaced because the government has rather effectively hoodwinked on a variety of topics in the last decade or so. But. I still have to have. That faith. I can't live in a world where I where I don't have that faith. Yeah, and to be clear, anybody listening to us is like, all right, these guys are like getting too deep into the weeds. This is one thing Bitcoiners love to do, is think adversarially. There's a spectrum of potential outcomes to all this, and in the Bitcoin world it is suggested to think as adversarially as possible. Worst case scenario at all times, that is what's going to make the network as robust as possible. If you're designing products, companies, protocol upgrades with that most extreme adversarial, adversarial outcome in mind, like that is what's going to make the network the strongest in the long run. Rationalist. Rationalists. Bitcoin rationalists. No, I think rational is somewhere like more in the middle of the spectrum where it's like, yes, this adversarial extreme outcome does have a potential to materialize, but it's likely that the incentives that Jesse and Brian mentioned really do play out and it doesn't get as extreme. But with that being said, you should always design and plan for the most extreme, which is part of what we're doing here. I was saying rationalist mainly from the topic calling ourselves bitcoiners, but to your point Marty, this is it's it's actually important in the sense of this comes up a lot with people that are very rational. I mean they just are curious, they understand the power of changing money means and what it means to power structures and they're concerned when they make an investment on like what does the landscape look and how does it change and what are the trade-offs and what are the risk factors. So it's relevant. We probably have to be a little bit better in referring to it as a battle in the enemy. But at the end of the day, it's still, it's relevant and it's important to talk about and just know what you're what, what's at stake. What's actually providing a good segue for what I wanted to talk to is like building a company with these regulatory landmines in mind, like you just mentioned, like we see this all the time at 10:31 with prospective investors like what, what happens if the regulators come and shut this down? Like how do you advise your portfolio companies to to act in that situation? And that's that's one thing like going back to the incentives like I think everybody on this show believes that the incentives are gonna win out at the end. And as somebody who's building a company or allocating money to companies building in the space like that's you have to have that long term vision like the incentives are gonna win out. Yes it's gonna be it could be a a very bumpy ride at times but that's why it's called risk. Like you take the risk with all this information in mind and had that long term vision of this is inevitable. In my mind, the world's gonna get better, better money, better money for the digital age that that cuts out. Central bankers like that. It is a step function improvement on the incumbent monetary system that will be recognized by the market in time. And yes, there will be ups and downs in price and ups and downs in the regulatory environment, but in the long run it will win out. And that's why you go and you build and you you weather the storm as it washes over you. Yeah, I mean the crazy part with that is like we can all pretty much stay here safely and you can look like Bitcoin's been deemed A commodity. Like you're pretty, you know, if they decide to be in or take draconian measures, like that's unprecedented. But you can live with that. You can live with that, right? It's like the effectively, if you're building a gold company, they just decided one day to say that. But what's scary is like the crypto stuff, but he's like, what's an unregistered security? Like you imagine building on that. And there's a lot of these ETF providers that are actually like, you know, having funds that have baskets of this stuff and who's your counterparty? Like, that's the thing that's actually more when you think on the risk curve and there's pensions that have allocated and all this stuff is, you know, we've seen it. It's not even vaporware is not even, I don't even think it's too far stretched to say, like a lot of this stuff doesn't even have. We've seen it go to 0. And that's the crazy part from like, you know, building. How do you imagine? I I wanted to ask you guys about this because it's something I've been thinking about like you know the there have been you know a few different Ethereum ETF proposals put out there. And and I was thinking about it in in my mind like those are actually, I mean who knows if they get passed, who knows if they get you know more scrutinized than the Bitcoin ETFs or less So would be interesting to see. But I think in some ways like it's almost, it's almost a Trojan horse of sorts for people to more deeply understand the difference between proof of work and proof of stake. Because in order for these things, you know, an Ethereum ETF to exist, you kind of need to dig into the details of how proof of stake works. And so whether that's regulators, these asset managers or just the general public, like I think how that plays out will be very interesting to watch. Because it could be sort of this interesting Trojan horse scenario where it actually forces people to more deeply understand the differences between proof of work and proof of stake, and why maybe there could be more reluctance to allow a proof of stake based ETF. I I hope that's true. I fear it it like you know if if you're, I don't know if you're setting up like a a corn futures product corn or soybeans or potatoes or whatever. It doesn't necessarily mean that you're going to like learn more about corn farming. You know what what's in a soybean you're just focused on packaging that up and and creating a a new market product. So I don't know but it would be great if that is how it plays out. I'm I'm I'm skeptical that people dig into these assets more than what they need to to you know create a a Wall Street product. Well, that's a very interesting point Jesse, cause the people who do dig into that, just thinking back to my days when I worked at the Manage Futures Fund, it's not the people providing the vehicle to get access to these financial products, it's the people trading those products. So like going back to like commodities like corn, wheat, like BlackRock has a commodity. They don't care about what's happening in the price, they just have this vehicle to get fees from. But the people trading it are going to look at weather patterns in Brazil and how much rain is falling in Kansas for Kansas red wheat. They're gonna look at coffee Funguses growing in Guatemala. Like they're gonna be doing those deep dive research to to actually trade that product, hopefully profitably. But the person providing that product is not doing that. Yeah. So in that sense, Brian might be right. And I just was was thinking about the wrong cohort there. Like, you're right, it's not about the people who sponsor these vehicles, it's about the traders who then do their diligence in order to make money in that market. I'll take the other side. I think I had this fascinating conversation with an investment banker that's far down the rabbit hole and it came in context. And there's a few tweets, Marty, you probably saw last week, one that I saw from Phil, Phil Geiger, diamond hands, he said you spend money when you're done using it. Spending money isn't using it. I don't make the rules. And I think he was referencing another tweet from Bitstein or Pierre which was referencing Mises. But effectively this idea that you, you hold a better form of money, that's the the form of using it and when you spend it, it's when you're done with it. And this idea of yield. And so these ETFs like I can see an Ethereum ETF, you know passing whatever the setup or mechanism is to pass on what I don't even know what it what it's like you stake it and then you get some form of yield based on it or other ETFs that offer some dividend. And it's this trick that that's been played on. You're looking for yield because you're a sucker if you're not using the money to generate more money because everything else is inflating away. And that the alpha or asymmetry, this is something we talk about a lot when we talk about like our products and and going to the market is like the alpha and the yield is the money. You just sit on it and you sit on your hands and you don't do anything. And so to to the point of these other ETFs, they'll come about, you know Ethereum and pass on dividends yield. I think that will actually play the opposite role. Similar to an ETF that will offer some other kind of like exotic mechanics that try to get you a return above the spot price of BTC. Because it's just the natural state of how messed up everything is that we've never had since our, you know, relative time being alive in the market. That you have a form of money that should appreciate in value based on its deflationary mechanics, similar to what gold did and what we see Bitcoin doing. So anyway, I think like other ETFs and cryptocurrencies ETFs, if they pass on additional kind of quote UN quote dividends, it'll play to the opposite effect of like going to Bitcoin. I I I love that mechanic because it's so frustrating how it how it works. And I have to admit that I fell for it when when I was in crypto land and still interested in altcoins was, you know the these altcoins generate their their new yield staking Proof of stake models and you're projecting based on the current market value of coins, what additional newly generated coins that are dividended to you are worth, right? So you're taking that snapshot and projecting forward in time based on how many units there are today and how much each unit is worth today and you're calculating how much income you're going to be generating just by the the staking yield. But it's a moving target because as those new units are actually produced, the total supply has shifted. And so, you know, all else equal, each unit becomes worth less and the total value of the system remains flat. But now you're you're yielding less than you were originally envisioning. And that that's such a subtle sleight of hand that I think all of this proof of stake bullshit rests on, that people will fall for and until the market bears out that it was a bad idea in the first place. Yeah, maybe I'm too optimistic on that point. But generally speaking, like it is, you know, it's been interesting to see the past couple months, like you start to see a little bit of that retail mania coming back to markets, particularly in like altcoin land. And it's been even more interesting to see that a lot of that activity in the past couple months has been like the Solana ecosystem. So it's like this weird dynamic where it's like, oh, Sam's in jail now, his his ecosystem, his beloved ecosystem can now flourish. And you're seeing people on Twitter, you know, praise, praise the tech. And in Marty's words, it's all a bit tiresome at the end of the day. But like do you guys think we're, you know we're going to get these altcoin cycles in perpetuity, Do they ever go away or is it does it end up just ultimately being a retail only phenomenon and institutions don't dip their hands in the latest dog token, but there will always be that segment of the market that is looking for essentially a a casino type environment. Yeah. My my take on it is that so long as we're moving through the adoption curve OK for the next several decades, the next incremental slice of adopters will fall for some some sort of affinity scam and it. So that's that I think will happen and simultaneously they will get more and more exotic as the you know the the first affinity scam was Litecoin, right? Silver to Bitcoin gold and that. Like, that's at the heart of money and it didn't work right and and now several generations later in the affinity scam, you're talking about Solana, you know sushi coin. Solana's got a phone. Yeah, Solana Phone, you got to, you got to spin up these weird little products in order to drive demand. And so I think that the the trend of increasing strangeness and like distance from the core value proposition of Bitcoin will also continue. Yeah, and this pull up the tweet from Alex Leishman, CEO of River Incredible Company. Just really respect what they're building. Their new product is fantastic. Riverlink it's you. Wanna read it? Marty for. Yeah, so this is Leishman's suite is east. Looks like it's on a trajectory to become a no man's land middle ground blockchain. It's subpar money compared to Bitcoin and subpar technology platform compared to Salada. So building on Jesse's point, like that's Solana's the new Etherium. Etherium had the robust scripting capability in the world computer, the virtual machine meme, then the eventual transition of proof of stake. And then they added sprinkled on ultrasound money at the end to compete with Bitcoin on that. And they just got completely just bulldozed by Solana and will be, I think this cycle, because Solana does everything that Ethereum wanted to do from the gate, they just rebuild it from scratch at a later year. It's faster. Proof of stake, it's got a phone and then Ethereum's gonna be sitting there trying to compete with Bitcoin and Solana. And Bitcoin does money way better than Ethereum. And then Solana does all the the Fugazi sort of mystical things that you don't need a blockchain for better than Ethereum does. Yeah, it's a good question on like in perpetuity, but definitely have a few more cycles. And what Jesse's said is probably one of the most valid is like institutions when they look at cash flow analysis or whatever. Like a new cryptocurrency spitting out is going to map to how they would evaluate another asset class versus Bitcoin where it's just you just sit on it like that's insane. That's a dumb you just buy it and lock it up and then it just appreciates forever. Like, what kind of black magic are you trying to sell me, you know? Yeah, yield is a pretty Evergreen allure and that'll that'll, that's a siren call that will get everyone who's new to blockchain, Bitcoin. You know, they'll fall for some, most, most people will fall for some sort of yield idea whether or not they put capital behind it or not. And yeah, but the wild. Part is the the money is the yield. The money is the yield. Yeah, I was going to say that the, you know, Bitcoin's accused of like, oh, is it Yahoo and and Google's right around the corner is this Alta Vista, you know that people try to to to say that about Bitcoin, but that's what's happening with these technology platforms and and luckily Bitcoin is kind of immune to that problem because it's not competing on technology. It's it's money. And so it it has set its flag in this different use case and it and it's damn good at it and it has the network effect that cannot be matched in proof of work. And so like that that battle's already won. But all these other coins are competing on technology and they are all subject to this Alta Vista, Yahoo, Google problem. And yeah, to to Michael's point, we'll see if if there's like a Google that emerges as a a dominant victor eventually like a, you know, a good enough technology platform for all the Fugazi has as as Marty said. But yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if we just see endless iterations of improved technology, improved technology that that allow these other, you know, new entrants to unseat the incumbent because they're flashier while competing on technology. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has money locked up. Yeah, I agree. Interesting 'cause like go. Ahead Mark I. Was gonna say I think the cycles continue, but as Bitcoin appreciates in value, the opportunity cost of messing around with the all coins just gets significantly higher. And so I think it'll continue, but it'll get more and more suppressed over cycles. Like, I don't think. I don't think we'll ever see. That right. You have to learn that like, oh, there's a there's a scam that happens every four years and there's some new thing and now there's a track record of like how many, how many scam cycles do we need to have before people are are like. That's what we did. You might not want to touch anything besides Bitcoin. I mean, you mentioned Litecoin and you had like feather coin, pure coin, steam it a dash and you had Ethereum and you had the ICO boom, then you had the D5 boom, then you have Solana doing their D5 boom. Like there's plenty of history. That's that's actually one thing. Parker, his next book that'll never write because he doesn't want to write it. But we need somebody to write like a like a historical book. Like we've talked about this with him before. Like, we need the history book that like stamps all these scams in history and the people associated with them and just hand it to people like, hey, this has all been done before. Yeah. Charles Hawkins? Yeah. Dan Larimer, Vitalik, all these guys. I can't help but feel like the what we're talking about is a is a symptom of like the money being broken. And I think it accelerates as the money breaks further but then it comes back harder once you have a like opportunity cost. Right. Because you need your your Bitcoin and and people start to understand and then better businesses are built less people are chasing these crazy tail ends of how to get returns and then you end up without all this. Right. Like people are playing with cryptocurrency the same way they're playing with the stock market and everything else on the end of the curve because they just have a bad form of money. And so they're just like fuck it like I hope I can. You know, whether it's a micro example of an individual that's trying to just like make ends meet and they're like I'd have no chance. That's the same person that buys a lottery ticket or an institutional investor that's trying to like just, you know, make it big because they either have to hit a benchmark or they they lost a bunch of fun. So it feels like we still have to accelerate and then we'll like kind of decelerate into less of it. Yeah and and that would be the adoption curve. That'd be the the the S curve of of adoption of Bitcoin of you know that incremental each incremental slice being new people coming in and making some some form of the same old mistake until you've you've onboarded most of the world and then they appreciate the opportunity cost of Bitcoin and then you've re established true true money and and like return to a a world of like sound finance and rational capital allocation. It could be several decades away, Marty. I have a question for you. How how does it feel for being around for so long and you've been public about, you know, family members calling you you nuts and, you know, just crazy like to be looking at this money but at the same time being like a Luddite and that you're just like care about this dumb, you know, boring rock while there's all this other innovation happening and why, like, you got to be more open minded? It's very frustrating, but you'll learn to live with it. It's hilarious. You're never right. It's like just a crazy contrast, like two sides and you're just sitting there like fuck. Because I forget. I mean, this goes back to like the Uppy Elite thing. It works in fractals, and it's not always the Uppy Elite. I saw like an interesting tweet thread the other week, but it was essentially like a start up founder who was like trying to tell his family that he, he had success and they were just like, yeah, whatever. Like I think and just like the ways humans are socially it's like especially like in familial situations for some reason or another a lot of people don't want to they they get a little jealous if somebody's succeeding and they have to find find like poke holes in it be like, no, you're wrong. It's this other thing the the uncle that I shield Bitcoin to in like 2014 his son was shielding me. Ripple 2017. And he was like yeah, he's he's like he's into crypto now. He knows what he's doing. I was like, all right, don't want to spill. I didn't. Know he was going to pull this out. Where did you put that in? Where did you find that? I didn't even see that pull that one. Out. Just tweeted it out. Somebody literally just tweeted out like 30 seconds ago. Time to start eating all the canned goods I bought two years ago when Marty Benz said they were attacking the food system. Collapses in it. They have attacked the food system. You're eating industrial sludge, putting crickets in your food. Now it. It is a great example. It's a great example, Marty, of like, and I think this is part of, this is part of what the yuppie elite are frustrated about when it comes to Bitcoin is that people who are predisposed to see everything as like you know, crisis is imminent or like you know the society's going to collapse. And people who who think in that way or are prone to that got to Bitcoin earlier and made and made a lot of money by, you know, some of the earliest bitcoiners were like, shit's going to hit the fan and I need to get out of the banking system and they bought Bitcoin, you know, at a dollar. And and that's like that was very much wrong in in 2010. It didn't, you know, that didn't pan out that way. But it worked in their favour and they made a fortune by being early to Bitcoin. And I think that is so pain that that hurts the yuppie elite so much to know that like, people are prone to like, conspiracy thinking, conspiracy theory thinking or. Like, are you trying to say Jessie, you're. Trying to know, Marty, I I think you're on that side of the curve, you know, got to Bitcoin 1st and that is so madding to an MBA or somebody who works in Wall Street. Yes, and I want to be clear. I love my uncle and my cousin. That's make that clear. But also, like, if you don't believe that men and women of power conspire to do things, I don't know what to I don't know what to tell you did. Everybody. This is a random, but it ties into this. Did you ever listen to the Tucker Carlson on All In Podcast? I did not. Really. Yeah. Like I haven't. I haven't seen it yet. It it was very good. But there was a there was a point there where they talk about people that make a lot of like wealth. They kind of destroy themselves and like Tucker's experience with people and working through it. And and there was a point I was like talking to my wife about And I was like, well, they're they're caveat in like people that are guilty that found fortunes very quickly in the same way somebody that bought a lottery ticket or maybe, you know, in a in a loose monster society where you can like hit it big easy, caught the right tailwind of like a startup or whatever it might be. And then you you know that it wasn't there. It wasn't all you. And everybody's looking at you like a genius. And there's just like natural thing versus kind of proof of work and slowly making your way through it. And and this like having this discussion, it kind of tied back to our discussion about like where we're headed. And it's not going to be seamless. And I think that there's a part of it and we've all probably experienced this. It's like it's not really like we we want to get to the other end of it and succeed in anything we do. But it's really like the journey is a big part of the fulfilling aspect of it and like having these discussions and being able to help people and see that light bulb when they when it clicks for them. So I think like, you know, at least personally a lot of this discussion or we talked about like it's not going to be easy, but it's like it wouldn't really not to be cliched with like or trite, but this is kind of like, you know, at least for me personally what I'm most excited for. I can't imagine a better time. And while it may be a little difficult at certain points it wouldn't be like really worth it to see all this like happen in real time if it's just like tomorrow it turned on everything's money. We kind of we may be like, it would be nice to seamlessly transition that I guess that that would take. But it's reality is when we look back at this, when we get on the other side, it's gonna all make sense and feel a lot. We're gonna feel fulfilled to like have gone through it. So yeah. That's the Solana people think, too. I doubt that, no. But it's true. It's been a long journey. It's been a long decade, which is crazy to think, but it's been fun, a lot of ups and downs and that's what I think having been in this for how many ever cycles. I think that's Michael, to your point, the one thing I'm most proud of this year is I've worked the hardest I have since being in this industry to prepare for whatever may come next. And I think we all agree it's up and to the right as has historically happened and it's been a lot of hard work, a lot of hard decisions and it will all be worth it, I think at the end of the day for all of us. Yeah, I think about 2021 and like the price ripping and if it all just took off for there and that was it. Like, I personally feel a lot, like a lot more unfulfilled based on what you just said. Like this past year, the things you've learned, the things built like, well, it's not easy. You get on the other side of it, you're like, oh, I wouldn't change it for the world. And so it's like that happens to a lot of people. And then they look back and they're like, oh, this was this is like the whole idea of you get what you want and then it's not really what you wanted. And that's the whole, like the concept of it. It's going to take time, but it makes sense that it takes time, because if it was easy, then it's just like not actually what you're trying to get to the other side of. I empathize at that point. I may never have left the triad fire world if things had just ripped in 21. Continuously gave gave me the opportunity to figure out what I actually wanted to do. And and you know, the dodge rooms can be nice to your point. Yeah, Brian would be still be writing about chain link at Coinbase would be. Hopefully not. Hopefully I would have, yeah. That would have been tough. Yeah. I mean, maybe this is like a point to reflect on this year. Obviously bitcoin's up a lot getting on the other side of the bear market, but it is that pressure, that stress does produce results if you're willing to put the work in. And I'm not trying to be some inspirational like I can like work hard guru right now but it's personally speaking. Yeah like it, it bear market has had a lot of stressful times for me personally, but it also forced me to be like all right how do we, how do we actually build a business here at TFTC at 10:31 and prepare for the next inflow. And that's what I'm most excited to see is but a lot of the companies on ramp obviously you guys been sprinting hard for the last year getting everything up like all the hard work you guys have been put in all the hard work of many other companies in the space. We mentioned Alex and River, you mentioned that that product they dropped last week, Jesse, that link product. I could see that being massive in the bull market, like just seeing everybody who's been in this for so long, building and knowing a lot of the people in the industry, talking to them behind the scenes and knowing they've been going through similar stresses. It's funny your your stress is tightly correlated to the price of Bitcoin and it's inverse. The the lower it goes, the higher your stress, the higher it goes, the the less high your stress is, but still a little high. Everybody, a lot of people have been working hard. I'm just extremely excited to see all that work pay off in the next cycle. Yeah, here's to a Here's to a stress bear market for the next year. You getting too gushy here, boys? No, I I I was thinking about you you made me think about Michael Saylor did it in one of his many interviews had a great little bit about I think he said 50% Kager annual growth rate is is about as fast as any asset can monetize and and and society can process that. And you know I think his point there the the kind of hidden point there is really profound of like this is a, this is a human process is playing out and all of the all of our individual psychology has to update to what Bitcoin is and is becoming and how it changes over time. And then all of the systems that we build as a as a group, as a society like the businesses, the institutions, the the legal code around a particular asset has have to be updated and built and that that process takes time. And so that that 50% mechanism you know which which manifests as these these bull markets that turn into mini bubbles and then crash to wash out that inflated optimism and and you know restore sentiment to like neutral that has to happen in order to stop a 50% kegger endlessly from becoming like overheated. Because if you if you got 50% kegger every year and and then that 50% was reliable every year, people would speculate too much and that's that's what happens. You know so the the reset the bear markets are just a reset of sentiment. You have to wash out the the speculators and and then you. At the same time, you have to allow for individual psychology and societal psychology and and systems and and institutions to incorporate the amount of change that has occurred over the last few years, process it and get ready for the next wave of change. So it's all like, it's all so beautiful how it it just has to happen this way. It can't. Bitcoin can't go through the adoption curve any other way. It has to go through these little mini Tulip Tulip bulb rallies every four years. There's just no other way. And it's it's beautiful. Yeah. And and that that's actually really topical because we talk about it like me and Cam often because we were you know the trenches onboarding individuals to multi sig. And when you think about like where we sit today couldn't existed without multi sig operators like a cost of unchanged like that market awareness that this thing exists, just the concept that you can split up the keys. But then you add to that the FTXS of the world that if you go two years ago it's probably too soon to talk about multi institution because it's like what you can trust institutions and obviously like Quadri you know Mount Cox and others had failed but not at the level that happened in 2022. When you know we look at the top five to 10 firms in the space or or like half of them are in jail and the other half are insolvent. So there's a lot of examples like that where you go across the spectrum. It's like it just had it had to happen. It was path dependent and you just have to make sure you don't die along the way and you're around long enough to like learn and then just like continue to when the bear happens rather than like you know there's no shortage of tradify folks that I talked to that we're looking to go back and like half did or a lot did and then others were like no, I'm going to tough it out. And because on the other side of that is you know, obviously we know what happens and then it just starts that next wave and opportunity base again, yeah. We're we're salty. We we've been through it. You know, I'm tired. I'm tired, Jesse. I don't know about Salty. Tired of it all? Yeah, I don't think the people, I don't think the people building altcoins have these scars or or perspective on like, you know, this is a marathon in Block Fi was built by people who were sprinting to a finish line that, you know, fell out, fell out before them. Yeah. So it's very funny to think about, like if you were to go on like an altcoin podcast and and ask about like the sentiment there, I think people would. The market's wrong would. Be like, yeah, the market's wrong and everything is about to change and we're about to enter a new paradigm where Solana takes over and and versus this kind of measured approach that we all have here of like, yeah, Bitcoin's gonna have another bear market and it's how it's gonna go. Do we see a bankless pivot during this bear, this bull market? They make too much money to ever update their reality. I don't know if if what Alex Leishman tweeted materializes, it's a lot of pumps. They could become a Solana podcast. At some point that that I could see, I could see that's what you're saying. Yeah, yeah, a bank. List has up upgraded from Yahoo to Google and Google is Solana. And now we all are a Solana podcast. I could totally see that. Yeah. It's it's The funny thing, like you mentioned, they're very successful. It's a there's something about the the altcoin narratives that really catches people. I I do think of everything we said maybe the old world, I think we we see the same stuff, but we see it around like securitization of assets and whatever they do in stable coins and like interesting exotic ways. Like, I think we'll see the new institutional flavors of what we just described. I don't think it looks exactly like the crypto I think we see in the institutional version of this stuff. I don't know if you. It has. To be that if it if it spreads to the institutional world, it has to be something like that because like they're not going to buy the new dog token. I mean I hope they don't, but like it has to be a different flavor for the institutions relative to like the retail focus mania. Because the the sort of continuing narrative there is just like meme coin, like no actual value just let's speculate on this thing going up. And so there's new dog coins, some old dog coins. But yeah, it's got to be. We did see a little match on. But we did see like jump in Terra Luna, which is effectively what what what you just described. That was the closest we've gotten to it from an institutional kind of level and Terra Luna. There's nothing stopping like JP Morgan from from spinning up Ripple 2.0. You know, like like what's the the value proposition of Ripple is like like that this is gonna be some interbank currency. But you could, you could have that done by a bank and they could, you know, claim that we're gonna do transactions this way and you create, but then they stake their whole reputation on it and that would be a a whole mess. I see. I was gonna mention I see the stable coins being the Trojan horse and then they get exotic. They'll try to like securitize mineral rights using a blockchain and track the the flow of natural gas from upstream to midstream to to end the market using a blockchain or something like that. But on that note, like did you guys see this week like tether coming out, freezing, addresses going full, we're gonna be OFAC compliant like. I did not see that. Maybe the pirate of the industry turns into the darling of of the tradfi world. Sort of. It seems like they're beginning to position themselves as a competitive circle in regards to being regulatory compliant. I don't know, it could be wrong, Brian. That's how your your eyes rise there. No, it was it was definitely an interesting twist. It's not something that I I necessarily expected to see. I wouldn't say necessarily that that means US regulators are gonna cozy up to tether in the boys like I I think their their preferred stable coin will probably still continue to be circle, but it is a it was somewhat of a surprising development. I mean what isn't Tether isn't kind of like a good chance tether is already cozied up like how do you manage that much treasuries and like those those go through, you know, coordinating banks. It's it's at Cantor Fitzgerald you. Know CEO was on CNBC pumping. I love tether. I love tether. Did you hear the clip where he referenced? I don't know if it's the same one, but re referenced like Bitcoin, love it. You know all the value props seems like, yeah, Ethereum, like Joe Joe Lubing can just turn that thing off whenever he wants. Yeah. I didn't hear that one. That's awesome. Yeah, I forgot his name. CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald. He seems to get it. Yeah. Or, you know, that's that's a perfect example though of like there's a guy who can make money this whole industry or at least like, you know, trying to put a little bit of weight behind like, yeah, we should allow this. And you know, CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald doesn't have no influence. So add up all those guys and that's, that's I think how you can overcome the Senator Warren's. Yeah, All right. We got to wrap up here. Soon 2024. Predictions Ho ho. What's the start? Let's get 3. 3 each. Or three together. All together. 3 each. OK, so all right, I I'm not. Saying that this is what I. Think will happen, but I'm saying that I wouldn't be surprised if we have a end of year peak which would be way faster. Than I think most. People are are thinking like it's possible in my mind that we have a end of 2024 peak and that would be kind of just an extrapolation of how cycles have been. The bull markets have been getting faster. In 2017 it was an 18 month bull market. The in 2021 the from having to enthusiasm peak which I'll say was was spring 2021 that was 11 months. And so it's possible that we have like, you know, another rapid bull market which would only happen if like if the market is starting to learn, OK, having happens, bull market happens. And so I need to pile in and not waste any time. And so that could be a trend that's happening here. And so I'll say that, I'll say that that would be a possible prediction for 2024. Yeah, you got two more. Let's do it. Let's go around the. Horn. So I can. OK, we'll do one. We'll do one each. All right, I think. I would, I would say. We'll get at. Least. One to three more. Nation states. Come out in support of Bitcoin, whether that means they announce mining operations or just, you know it as you know, recognizing it as a currency in some way shape or format. So one to three new nation states added to that short list of countries that support Bitcoin. And then we're going to have Jesse do a 24 hour live stream of the halving and his shirt is off by hour 21. That sounds good. Just so long as that. That block reward gets cut in half, thank you very much. 2024 we see at. Least one larger entity play in the space that ends up at the same fate of as in 2022, that it's caught offsides, whether it's with custody or some form of counterparty risk that brings back to the forefront. You know why custody matters? Yeah. OK, got a bold one. Here ETF. Does not get approved in January, OK, so just not January still. Approved. During the year but. Just not January. Yeah, I think it'll get approved in March. Could be wrong. That's possible. That and. We'll hit six figures in 2024. Yeah man, 6 figure Bitcoin's like different paradigm though. Like that's the real. Just heady, kind of everything changes. Like, Are you ready for a different paradigm, Michael? It's gonna happen in 2024. It has been predicted but that but that goes. Against like, the thing. With Jesse referencing if we hit 6. Figures in 2024. I don't think we peak in at the end of the year. Like, I think it just it's ripping for a while. No, we Bitcoin never peaks, OK? What I mean like this? What I mean this cycle like it? Doesn't it doesn't hit. Twenty 100K, whatever, 120. And then it's just like like we go into 2025 roaring we're gonna. It. RIPS 700 at least. No, no, I'm just kidding. No, I'm just getting bashful. ETS is not going to be on conference day. Yeah, 700 by conference. Day ETF is not get approved. I bet we'd touch six figures at some point next year. I. I think that we'll have one. Other At least one other Fortune 500 company add. Bitcoin to their balance that was going to. Be my other one, some more corporate adoption is likely. Yeah, specifically because of the FASB rule. Which Michael Saylor's very excited about and nobody else seems to like appreciate just how big of a deal it is. And and Michael Saylor's right it it makes it possible for makes it possible for everyone to see the Micro Strategy Playbook and be like Oh well I want to mark to market the value of my holdings in a Bitcoin bull market and and record those as profits. Like everyone's gonna want to do that or should want to do that. So hopefully that begins the real adoption of by corporates. You're gonna need a hash. My second. Wow, so doubling hash? Not quite double. It's at like 500 right now. Yeah, I'll, I'll piggyback on that in like more nation state. Vertical integration of mining, whether it's nuclear, whatever, whatever they're gonna. Go like I think. UAE, Latin America, we're gonna see a lot more tap in, a lot more firms tap into that or countries. OK, I'll say. I'll predict that we won't have an all time high for. Until Q4 next year. Which you know, I think is later than a lot of people would be thinking. I think it's just I think we're going to be surprised again by how much of A non event the having appears to be. You know when it happens, and then for several months following, I know you just contradicted yourself. Nope. Nope. Nope. No, I didn't. Yeah, I thought we were gonna get appears, appears. To be a non event. Appears to be a non event and and and. Then but. Beneath the surface, the available for sale supply of Bitcoin is being eaten up by the demand that is no longer fully satisfied by newly created Bitcoin, so that that would be reflected in price. What's that? Wouldn't that be reflected in price? Yeah, I think. There's a lag. Effect. I think there's there's not that far. From all time highs though, Jesse, Yeah, I'll, I'll take the other side. I think we hit all time high bot before. The halving and and so Brian, my, my. I guess I'm just scarred by you. Just try to hedge. You just try to hedge your predictions. I don't like your. Predictions have to be a lie. Spicy predictions Kind of. You know, they're both. Kind of, radical of. Q4 all time. High and also Q4 peak. So that would be that would be like a 2017 scenario where we went, we went parabolic in the last three months of the year. Yeah, we'll see. BlackRock ETF just got a Ticker I. Thought it already did. It's a ticker, Larry. Closely. Also, I bet I. Bet, I bet. Well, while I think that. While I think that we could see. A peak in 2024. It's not my base case. My base case is is, I don't know, Q2 2025, says Blackrock's proposed spot, Bitcoin ETF Christian with ticker. Ibit and updated filings include new language about cash redemption versus Incon. Breaking news on the last trade We're gonna need a. Special special two weeks starting the year. Just ETF madness. That's We got memes here already. I bet The corn and the. Corn one. I bet the corn and the corn one. Marty, do you wanna Who? Or maybe Jesse. Jesse. Has a connection with Uncle Larry if he wants to come on the pod, it's like the year. You mean Larry Fink? Yeah, Larry. Larry Fink. Your buddy, your buddy, your buddy the, the. The. The good act Savior. Savior to Larry I'll. Just shoot him a quick. Message and say, hey Larry, I've been saying that you actually. Like Bitcoin? And that you're good for Bitcoin. So won't you come on our podcast? I'm sure he'll answer that. Send him your article you wrote with the structurally broken vehicle. He he created with a with a block of a wheel. I'll love that, yeah. Larry and I are actually Pen. Pals on the next letter I. Write them. I'll throw out the invite. Nice. An open letter to Larry Fink makes you a pen. Pal, Yeah, he's he's so. Old school. He doesn't even use phones. He just he's he's big in the. Written word, pen to paper, flight to quality. Flight to quality, gentlemen. Let's be thankful for this. Year. I mean, we started the show. Going strong. Most podcasts will make it past three episodes. We are. We hit our 30th last last one. This is We hit 30th. I was guessing we're. In the high 20s, No. Yeah, we hit. 30 I was looking at something, Yeah, so 30. First episode we we beat we bucked to Trent it's. Been a great, been a great time. Week in week out talking with you 2 Brian a couple times, other guest. Still working on my my outro for this. I'm going to try it. We wrap up today, but it's been fun. I think people are getting value out of it. Yeah, the reception that's. My prediction for. For 2024, actually is. Marty will figure out his outro for this podcast. This is the last trade, but this is not the last. Episode of The Last Trade. We'll be back next week, next next year, next year, next year, next year 20. 23. I fucked it up already. Yeah, we'll try again next year. We're gonna respect everyone's family's time. Oh, we, We're out.
Transcript source: fountain