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My name is Andy Edstrom and I'm thrilled to welcome you to the second episode of Scarce Assets, a show that examines scarcity, the most fundamental driver of economics and markets, and the scarcest asset of all, which is Bitcoin. Today, I'm happy to be here with my Co host Jesse Myers and our guest, the brilliant Jeff Booth. Now, I have the privilege of saying a few things about Jeff, just like our guest last week, Preston Pish. Jeff is a professional investor both in Bitcoin and outside of Bitcoin. He's an entrepreneur and an investor and probably the clearest, most cogent communicator of complex talk topics that I've ever met. I'd say the skill is most evident in his exceptional book, The Price of Tomorrow, which I have read cover to cover twice and can attest that it's one of the best books I've read in years, and I'm constantly recommending it to people now. Jeff is currently investing in Bitcoin companies on behalf of Ego, Death Capital, and in the interactions I've had with him over the years, I've found him to be extraordinarily kind, not least because he came out of nowhere and wrote a review of my book, and I couldn't be happier to have him as our guest on scarce assets. So Jeff, how are you today? Did you get any sleep last week? I don't think my man Jesse here did. Yeah, I I'm excellent. Thanks and thanks for having me on honor to be following Preston on this as your second. Yes. Well, I I'm super excited to talk to you. We both are and you know I think I'm just going to dive right in with the with the big question which is I want to take full advantage here of your skills at distilling complexity into simplicity. So I'm going to start with the big question here. If you don't mind, would you be willing to give us the the potted version of your thesis, both about deflation and why Bitcoin is the only practical solution you've found for our system as it exists today? Sure, the and I think this is. I think it's so insanely simple that people get confused about how confusing the existing system is meant to be to confuse them. But it's insanely simple. The the natural state of a free market is deflationary. And. And why is that? Because we search for things that give us more value and we use things. We don't use things that give us less value. So entrepreneur is creating more value for us and us using the things that provide us more value. The output of that is, is deflation over the long term. Short term you can have supply constraints that you can have certain things. But over the long term what entrepreneurs would do or what people do, we solve problems to create more value. That is the natural course of the of the free market and technology is a lever on that that we invent to make the job easier and the technology is moving exponentially. So those two things given together then what should be happening in the overall global market is is prices should be followed. Prices should be falling through that action to all people on the planet and people on the planet should be able to work less and get more on it on a never ending scale. But we don't live in that system. We live in a system based on debt which needs to in in if the debt were and if the pricing was allowed to fall the debt would reset and the debt would and the debt would collapse. And every single thing in the world has counterparty other than Bitcoin has counterparty risk to that system failing. And so we put up with a system that we that we constantly increase the monetary units to drive inflation and it essentially devalue currencies to be able to make prices go up and and so why bit why Bitcoin in that is is it's imposing that discipline on the world. So if you're measuring from Bitcoin, all prices are falling and they're falling exponentially and they will forever, they'll continue to fall because because it's decentralized and secure and hard capped. And So what? What drives the confusion is most people are measuring from the other system and even when they're measuring Bitcoin, they're measuring Bitcoin price, which actually reinforces that they're measuring the price through the lens of the debacing system. So it's actually a very, very simple concept. It's prices fall to the marginal cost of production over a long period of time, period. Every economist would not know. Economist would argue that. And Bitcoin is measuring that happening. And so if you're choosing to measure from something other than Bitcoin, then you're choosing to measure a system that's increasing prices by decreasing the value of your money, rather than the system that's allowing abundance to flow to you of. That distillation. Such a good summary there, Jeff. And I have to also jump on what Andy said earlier, complementing your book there, it was one of the important things I needed to read. It was sort of dependent for me coming from coming from the the traditional establishment world view about you know everything I learned the business tool about how the world works, how business works, how money works. And I needed that that book to use the the framework that I understood of like technology exponentially improves to then create this this point out the dissonance there like well technology exponentially improves yet we have this monetary system that's incomplete with and that was a necessary thing for me coming from the establishment worldview. I guess I said that was a encouragement to anybody out there who's having trouble getting through to a friend or colleague about Bitcoin. You kind of need to start with the price of tomorrow as like the fertile ground for selling the seed of Bitcoin before you can really associations with somebody who's an MDI, for example. Jesse you know what that means a ton and thank you for for that but it but actually it's broader than kind of our lives are impacted by other people impacting us right. That we we don't see something and all of a sudden we do right. We sometimes we don't we can't even point put the finger on what it is that changed our mind and then we're then our mind is forever changed and and or we see something that never existed before in our lives and once we see it we can't Unsee it And so we don't know how that how that travels and we also don't typically talk about so reinforce who brought that to to light in the 1st place and it actually doesn't matter that's what the that's what the world looks like and that's what our our place in the world looks like. We're both emergent in creating it and we ride on top of it So it's kind of a two way St. So it and a lot of times like I I can't even tell you and I don't know for sure where I came up with some of this in the beginning but I can't tell you that maybe somebody else said something to me that I can't even remember specifically that that helped helped me see it. And so that's how the world works and there's a whole bunch of people stuck in a framework that is exactly the opposite to how the to to is essentially measuring the free market and and they're and they're stuck they don't know they're stuck and they're and I think we'll look at a lot of bitcoiners too and once you see it you believe everybody else should see it immediately. And I just the change doesn't happen that fast. Well, well said, double under score by the way, on price tomorrow of the book. And yeah, I can, I can definitely say from personal experience to someone who advises people for a living, they never remember where whether you advise them or somebody else said something. You know, people, people miss an attribute all the time. And it doesn't matter, right? And it doesn't matter like if you actually if if what you care about is is kind of making the world a better place and it doesn't matter whether you had attribution to it or or not. That's true. It's true. All right, so I want to switch gears a little bit here, Jeff. It must have been over the last few years an interesting time to be investing in Bitcoin companies. Not that it's ever not an interesting time, but especially in the last few years as you've been doing with ego death. So two related questions for you. First, what are some of the things you've learned about Bitcoin by investing in Bitcoin companies? And then also, have you learned anything either about VC investing or private investing or investing overall as a result of investing in Bitcoin companies? Yeah so lots to lots to learn but we had a thesis probably that was very different and and I'll say I was fortunate enough to see the the Internet wave early in the Internet wave built companies. And I I remember actually similarly to what's happening in Build direct. I remember I remember my when my parents said to me and others around me said what are you doing right this is this is nonsense like like the the the you're going to build an online company and because because you could see what was happening and how all all value would move to something but something new that delivered more value to people and I wanted to be a part of it and it was it was it was so exciting man I made a million mistakes but it but but the the most talented people on the planet were working in this space in the in the in the Internet and you'd and and and so I never thought I would get a chance to see that again And what I see in in Bitcoin is something way more profound. It's bigger than the Internet it's bigger than and the type of people that are joining this are not just joining it to be able to build incredible value for other people and get and do well on the back of it. They're joining it because they know. They know this this system can't solve the system problem that exists in the world today. And so as they come into this and as they're building onto it, I just actually cannot believe I'm fortunate enough to be a part of this ecosystem and invest in these extraordinary entrepreneurs that are building the future of what the world's going to look like. I pinch myself every day that I get to do that. Now the other thing I would say that is different is if you truly understand Bitcoin and you understand prices fall to the marginal of the cost of production in everything, then then barriers can't be built around your built business. Monopolies can't be built around your business with by by using Fiat rails to be able to hold other people out. What it means is you constantly have to deliver value and that value is going to other people are going to see that value. They're going to copy you and they're going to compete more more value and unless you're constantly providing more value for users your business won't succeed And so so we think very distinctly about that when we're funding entrepreneurs when we we think about it as a much longer ride than typical what venture would look look like and and we think the the we want to be a part of that that journey with those entrepreneurs. So you almost you you have to you have to love the people you're working with and you because you know it's going to be a long journey and you realize that they're going to make mistakes as well and and not everything's going to work but but what a crazy adventure And then some of those companies that even some of the companies that we've funded like if you'd look at what Fetty is doing and and these these could be these could be major major kind of utility type companies of the of the of the future. They will have to constantly innovate to do that they will have to grow. There's lots of different things but they'll do that by creating value for users and and what we think is 10 to 100 times the value that people are getting today and and that drives in a massive growth curve on the on these companies by solving these problems. So it's just it's it's and I don't know if you you know this I don't know when this podcast coming out but today we launched the the launch of our our new fund $100 million fund to be able to invest in in Series A because you you think about Bitcoin only entrepreneurs there's a gap in the market and and those entrepreneurs don't want to go to VCs that invested in a whole bunch of altcoin shit coins and everything else. They told them that this would happen right and and so you want an investor that's a long term partner and so there's a there's a gap at the Series A spot space in funding. So we'd launched today a Series A fund and brought Lynn and Preston on as partners. Huge Congrats. And that's a that's a sizable number. That's a very large number in the bitcoins biz. Yeah, it is. And Preston mentioned he, he was like, well, some exciting things, but I guess I can't tell you about it yet. So a week later, now we know. It's it's super exciting and and Preston's become a really good friend of mine through like so is that is that actually many many bitcoiners have but Preston's become a really good friend through the through you get to know people you get to know them very deeply and everything else and he's been extraordinarily on as an advisor in the first fund and so him joining joining the fund as well as Lens is I could say the same for Lynn. It just, it's remarkable. You get to work with just brilliant people and I can't, I couldn't imagine being anywhere else. Yeah, test at the brilliance and the character of of all those names you you mentioned, You mentioned Fetty by the way. Had to to Obi another, you know just incredible positive player in the space, right with his exchange. He went Bitcoin only early. They were doing, I remember at the stations right before anyone trying to build some trust in the industry years, years before all the mayhem and carnage that that happened in the last bear cycle. So that's just phenomenal. Well, very excited for you and your team and what you're building in the space because these companies thus far in Bitcoin haven't had a lot of access to capital let's be honest and especially experienced capital, capital driven and directed by people who have significant experience not only investing in Bitcoin but but in other spaces. So that's a that's a huge development and and. Selfishly and actually for the Bitcoin only entrepreneurs and everything else, what's actually happening is they're building venture type returns on top of a venture type asset. So think think that through. So you're so, so if you can deliver that type of value 10 to 100 times and and the market explodes on this and you're collecting and you're denominating your balance sheet in Bitcoin. And and some of some of the companies we've already funded are already profitable. They're growing extraordinarily fast and they're denominating by creating the the the acceleration of Bitcoin adoption globally. They're creating Bitcoin on their balance sheet which is also, at least in in relation to Fiat currencies, rising against everything else. So I I actually, I I can't believe other people don't see it. I can't believe that the massive part of the market there's a there's an asymmetry and and people can't see it because because it's the most exciting spot to invest around and just the people are amazing. That's a huge opportunity. And of course the inverse of that is the is the opportunity cost, which is the the question I've always asked myself. I've written very, very few checks into Bitcoin companies, but more than 0. And yeah, the question is, oh, am I going to make, you know, am I going to make more than just holding Bitcoin on this, on this opportunity. And of course there's other benefits to the long run to to being involved in in, in building on Bitcoin. But yeah, exponential times an exponential could turn out well. Yeah, Jeff, I want to follow up on that. In my mind that that means that a key tenet for success for Bitcoin startups used to hold Bitcoin on the balance sheet. That and the idea of like you would want to be generating Bitcoin flow and cash flow and then and positive you know and retain those earnings and has Bitcoin is that is that something that feels is. Essential to success here. Yeah what else So it's it's it's it's harder to on a podcast in this amount of time to kind of go as deep as you'd need to. But we we've actually built treasury management with different companies to be able to make sure that they're they're look and it depends on the life cycle of a company too. You wouldn't want to be caught short and then bitcoins volatility hurt you and not being able to make payroll or something like that. So we've we've helped our companies create the treasury management strategy and then depending on that but but in in the over the long term, yes you'll acquire more Bitcoin. In fact, the way to acquire more Bitcoin will be investing into because mining gets less and less as a percentage amount of Bitcoin. The way we'll be investing in, investing in or providing value to others, right? Or investing companies that provide value to others. And that's the best way to accrue more Bitcoin. See. It does remind me of two anecdotes of of Jeff Azos and that you know when he was looking at starting Amazon in the 1st place, he the inspiration for it was that he found out that Internet usage was providing 3200% year over year, right? And then also Andy Radcliffe, Silicon Valley, BC always recommend starting your career in a place that's growing 100% year over year for the last few years. That's like the whole his whole thesis there is that the best thing you can do for your career is put yourself in a high growth company because opportunities will And so it's kind of the marriage of like the best opportunity for talent and for capital is to be in a place where growth rate is. You know your VC on VC mental model there speaks to it's a. That's why I say like, it's literally incredible that there isn't a wall of money chasing it. That's still going to come. But and I think we just remember where we are in this cycle, like Lightning has grown 20,000% over the last couple years, right. But it's still relatively small at least in most people's mind. Most people are still coming to terms with the asset class repricing everything else, let alone all of the other layer. And what's how fast that's that's that's growing or and they can't see, they can't see what's next until it's in front of them. So being able to build what's next and know I can't say for sure, but have a high degree in confidence on what the and how much value these are going to give to users, it's a pretty, pretty extraordinary spot to be. So related to being where the growth is, I also want to return to the theme of the pod, which is scarcity. Now, Jeff, I know your first career was in real estate, which is probably an industry that understands scarcity better than most. Was scarcity something I'm curious that you understood from an early time, or did it come to you as a result of experience? I would say simple simple. Supply and demand makes that intuitively understanding, right? That that if something's scarce, then that supply and demand let more demand than than an asset will push that asset price up getting to Bitcoin and and you know this, even in the book, I probably had a 5% kind of probability weighting of Bitcoin failing when I when I wrote my book and that wasn't Bitcoin failing. That was my misunderstanding of why it wouldn't right and so so that's really important to note note and so I so I hadn't done I'd done some of the work. I was I held point Bitcoin. I bought a lot more as I was writing writing the book because it made intuitive sense and it would have felt like the only the only thing that could resolve the conflict and financial system by allowing a transition mechanism. So. So so one system would get worse and worse and one system would get better. But it wasn't until I tried to disprove that hypothesis and and it used to it was one of the things I love about Bitcoiners is they're kind of don't trust verify and and and they're constantly attacking themselves. Right. Attacking the the And so going through that work and understanding why why in my opinion it wouldn't fail and it would stay decentralized and secure. Now you realize huh you have a rock solid foundation that it's scarcity that must reprice the entire world not not might. If it stays decentralized and secure it must right. So so then the question comes how would it break? Who would would governments. How could they break it what would what would happen? What are all the games that would be played from the existing financial system which dominates our control today to this new this new scarce asset or scarce and decentralized, decentralized and secure asset? What would that look like? And and that's where nothing surprises me from the the the what the world looks like. It's just it would naturally look like that, as Bitcoin imposes that discipline on everything. Yeah, to the the like a cone Doyle quote. Once you've eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth. So I, I, I love that. I I, I, I love that I'd had forgotten that quote. But but I love that because because now you can. Now you don't have to go from the debasing system through all the confusion, confusion and try to understand economics that is largely made-up to be able to to to to confiscate, to hide that fact that prices fall to the marginal cost of production. Most simple economic terms and and everything else. Oh, I'm going to change the value of this asset so the bank doesn't fail. I'm going to do this. I'm going to all of the the three letter words and the the just complete nonsense that people are looking through to try to understand and it's really confusing. It's I almost think is it made to look that confusing to hide the theft and money and and and is all economics everything PhD is the entire thing the entire amount of waste in the system all to defraud people. I, I, I, I. And I don't think it actually I I think there's a belief and people believe that and it feeds on it. But but if you just looked at the objective facts on the truth, what the free market looks like versus what this looks like and then you'll have this coping that people say well it it can't be a free market but then they'll then they'll advocate for a free market in their own business. Right. It's it's it's so crazy but so now if you know that the the that you have something scarce decentralized and secure and if it stays decentralized and secure and and scarce then it is repricing everything else. Then you change your frame from the future looking backwards instead of from now looking forwards and what would happen and what would be the those what would those events look like on both systems and is really easy to see. I'm I'm, I'm, I'm shocked that it's so hard. It's. It is. And the complexity thing, by the way, I'm I'm almost all the way through Lynn Alden's book Broken Money, and she does a phenomenal job of describing the monetary system. And of course it is so much more complicated than Bitcoin. Bitcoin is hard to understand for most people. It was hard for me to understand and of course I'm still learning about it myself. There's new things I learned every day, every week. But the simplicity of the tenets and the assumptions are such that yeah, it it's for me, I still can't understand the complexity of the Fiat system. I'll be honest with you, having worked worked in the Fiat system and be tasked with trying to explain it to clients, I still struggle with it. I always come back to the I always think about the world went from a a geocentric model of of the solar system and universe to the heliocentric model in the geocentric model required at the cycles which were little tiny circles in the other planets orbits in order to make them make sense in a geocentric model. So we got really as as as we got better at studying the sky we've developed more and more intricate explanations to to explain how things were happening rather than challenging the core assumption. Yeah. And and you know, we live in this world where the monetary system has this religious reverence for this core tenet, and the 2% inflation is good and necessary, and you can't challenge that. And so you have to create epicycles around that in order to explain everything. I use that all the time. That same thing from you I. Don't know. But it but it no and and but it but it's but but that's you're so used to and and think about think about Galileo or think about like how long that took to change change minds and sure the minds are going to change faster this time but but that's what people are fighting through and and and it's amazing to see somebody so it's it's amazing to see somebody and maybe many of the people that are listening to this podcast too it's amazing to see somebody say Yep the free the deflation is natural state of the free market and then at the same time go Yep I'm going to measure it all in a Fiat to pay some currency right. And I'm going to make that stronger in my life so so when you like I I I don't understand how those two things could be true at the same at the same time. Unless you decide I want to concentrate all wealth to control me because because the the the path the the path that path dependency requires if prices should come down and and every year as technology gets better that that that we should get more for less but the only way to stop it is to steal more money then then what would the system look like because it would have to get worse as technology moved faster and faster. The concentration of that that wealth and the and what that system would say would have to get worse and worse as well so so that's actually why I say it's way easier just to if it's true that it's decentralized and secure and capped at capped at 21 million and everybody should do their own work on why then then it doesn't matter. It doesn't matter, actually, about me, you. It will impose this across the world in time. That's it. Bitcoin does its own thing, marches to the beat of its own drum. I sometimes think I'm literally in some ways physically connected to the whole system, and I know that this, this master marches independently to to what I think or feel or or care about. And there's there's nothing I can do about that. I wonder Jeff you you break it down so simply from first principles to OK if this if true then the following true and it doesn't take you know it takes like 1 axiom to begin and then it's and then logic follows. Do you think that people struggle with that because they just anchor to the old system and they say, OK, I hear you, Jeff, your your explanation sounds logical. And so I'm going to apply some, some significant probability to it being correct, but less than 100% because everyone around me tells me something different. And so I'm like probability weighting the possibility that Jeff is correct, you know, and sort of existing in some, I don't know, quantum quantum state between 2 possibilities. How do people think? Yeah. So. So I don't know how everybody else thinks. I didn't know. For me I did the same thing and that like I said I had a probability waiting that wasn't as high as it is today. And and now and and and so. So my work got me to deep do as I was trying to disprove. This got me deeper. I haven't seen an argument and like I put my workout four years ago. You can imagine how much I talk about this all over the world. I haven't seen somebody actually challenge the the fact that prices follow the marginal cost of production over long enough time time period, because that's what we do, right. I haven't seen the silence is. Deafening isn't. It and and so and I also and So what I find is it's too hard to believe that prices could fall forever for people because they are living in a different system and they've been they they believe inflation is required for a productive society and and so I try to get into to and Jesse said this like why do they believe inflation is required. So and and like specifically why and it because you can hear people parrot that but it that by the way that didn't change that doesn't change my core tenant. It's just they have a belief that inflation is required. And so now if you follow their belief that inflation is required and it it you, you could just change the words and you could say, so you believe that people should steal a portion of your money every year to trade with other humans. That's that's your belief because that's what you're saying, right. You don't vote for it. You don't have you so so you you believe that there should be a hidden theft and money that takes steals from some people and transfers to others to be able to trade around the world. That's what you believe and and so now you you can challenge, OK, why do you believe that? And then they'll say, well nobody would buy if you'd nobody buys things if if prices come down And then you say what about that phone you have in your pocket, right? Or do you buy ATV or do you would you buy food and you start to go down the path of for them? Why is it that they believe that and and as they start to understand that belief is just because somebody else told them so and who might have told you so. Maybe potentially the people that are on top of the system that benefits from that is that who told you and and they start to unwind it for themselves. Thanks for tuning in. If you're interested in exploring any of these topics further, or want to learn more about how we can help you secure a new or existing Bitcoin allocation, get in touch with our team at on rampbitcoin.com. We look forward to supporting you on your Bitcoin journey. I think invariably it ends up being the people who tell you who instruct everyone on this system are, you know, I think it's the non malicious priests of epicycles, people who have created a career for themselves by genuinely trying to explain the system. That's wrong. And that's how we that's required for that, for that whole system to keep operating and perpetuating. You know, I experienced that at Business School. I, you know, I at no point did I detect any of my professors trying to hoodwink me. They genuinely believe in the monetary system that they were teaching us about and they've made their careers in it. And that's how it's so convincing. You know, it's because everybody believes it except for the the the man behind the curtain or somebody who originated this, this, this fallacy, and everybody else since then doesn't realize that they are participating in a system that's on a faulty assumption. And and Jesse I I think you're right. I think that's what it looks like and and so most people within the system are caught in that same trying to do good in the same system and it's in and it would challenge their ego in such a way. Their ego, their their entire construct of their reality, it breaks down in such a harsh way if everything you've taught who you are is wrong, right. So, so that that that's a really hard thing to take. Like I've spent 50 years of my life talking about the this thing teaching people it's based, it's based on a miss truth, right. That'd be really hard to so so no wonder it goes on it it it carries on. And so there's people that come in and just put their head in this and it can't be true. And when you ask them, they just, they change the topic, right. So a lot of people, and we're talking about my thesis, they just change the topic. Yep, I agree with that. Now I'm going to change the topic. Also, let's talk about something else. Well, let's talk about something related. And this question comes from my friend Brendan Lane, which is what do you think the transition looks like, right? Will it be gradual, Will it be chaotic? Do you assign scenarios? How do you think about that and? So that's hard to give a iffy answer of one thing because there's so many different tail events and so many different things that that are likely to happen on the way through. What I would say is this though if you're measuring from Bitcoin and you're spending more time in Bitcoin you're actually already living in the future. So so I keep I, I, I I keep getting asked the question all the time when will it happen like it's a light switch and it like I mean from really good friends who know my my work and I said it is happening right in the last I I used the that house example that I use all the time my my house going from 1.4 million to 2.1 million in Fiat in Canadian dollars. But in the same 3 1/2 years and in in in Bitcoin, going from 300 Bitcoin to 35 Bitcoin, right. I'm already living in the system that's repricing everything. Just that most people aren't choosing to and and I would and and so once you're living in that system and you understand it's repricing everything else. You also want to spend time with all of those people building the truth hope and abundance and all of those like you guys right. Why we've become friends why why there's so many brilliant people in this space is those people are aligned to a bigger bigger mission than themselves and and and when you can not that we have to agree on all the things but when you can agree on the on the most important things the rest is pretty easy and and and so now and at first I and I've said this on multiple podcasts I was a hypocrite because because I had a hedge on the existing system blowing up I knew exactly what would happen all the steps that would make it blow up and what it would look like and I had a hedge protecting myself in in in Bitcoin and and so that by the way that was quite shocking for me to realize that I too was was like that so so I can't complain about other people being somewhat on that path right now too because I was and it wasn't and so I had some Bitcoin but I had 90% of my time in the Fiat world boards and everything else in the Fiat world it wasn't too and that's part of the reason for starting the fund. I needed to resolve that conflict in me. I needed to move my time to the system I wanted to see in the world to help advance that. And So what I can say is by doing so, it's just been so power, so it is so incredible. And so I'd love to see more people spending more time, spending finding ways to spend more time, and I get asked that all the time. Where do I start? Where it's an open network. Open these up. You could start anywhere. You could start, you could start by grabbing bitcoiners Ben from BTC sessions. Just put on a market right and and you could do that in your town. You could run your your podcast, you can run meetups. You could build a business on top of that that solves a problem for others and create lots of lots of value. There's are tons of ways if you if you don't want to start your own thing, you could start to get to know some of the great bitcoiners that are building other things and see where you can help them. But there are immense amount of opportunities. It's because it's growing so fast and that talent to in building the system is going to expand and those people are going to be some of the people here are going to be look like kind of the in the new system the the people who invented Google and people that that that all the technology that we take for granted for today iPhone some of the people that we're talking about right now in our networks are going to be those people on time. That's it. The future is here. It's just not evenly distributed and get involved. People, if you feel compelled to do something in Bitcoin, do it. I certainly felt compelled. I know Jesse did. There's also different, different levels of involvement. You can jump in with both feet, go full time Bitcoin like my man Jesse. You can sort of dip in and out of it as I have, you know, based on the life constraints that I have. And there's so much to do. There's so much work to do. You're being a little unkind to yourself Andy. You if I if I was to to characterize what you're doing and have done it's. I think you've recognized that your opportunity to contribute to Bitcoin is to help build the bridge between old world wealth management and and and a new world of Bitcoin. And that bridge needs to be built. And so you like, you know, millions of people can cross that bridge once it's built. But you know that I think that's emblematic of a lot of things in Bitcoin, where Bitcoin is its own protocol, its own island exists and it needs a lot of infrastructure around it to be built out and on top of it to be built out. And that connects to the old world in many, many places. And I think that's where a lot of opportunity lies over the next decade. And I'm sure I'm sure Jeff feels the same way since he's invested. I agree but even Andy like either than I told you you wrote a book on this. How many people that are from writing that book had no idea about Bitcoin and now we're really great bitcoiners and moving forward and how many people do you touch One person then that then touches 10 million. So that's what I'm getting at. We all matter and in whatever way you want to contribute matters. And so I just, and that's a really powerful thing in this in an open network that anybody anywhere in the world can contribute in any way. And multiple touches are are important so Jeff has nailed you know the first principles. You know from the studs on why this is true and yet us being humans, you know we need repetition, I guess, call it social proof, but you know, you don't want to just hear the truth from one source, You want to hear it from multiple sources. And so if you're an individual out there that does Bitcoin and literally anything else, there's an opportunity for you. It's, it's literally that civil. All right. Well, I'd actually like to to switch gears a little, take a question from No second best on Twitter. And his question is what technology that is not Bitcoin or AI. OK, not Bitcoin or AI. Do you see Jeff as having the most potential to approve the world in the next 10 years? And maybe I'll also add improve the world and also perhaps be an investment opportunity, yeah. So technology is a lot of times a double edged sword. The same thing that can improve can destroy the world. And and so it's a it's a tool that we use to make our lives better. When something and if it's controlled by a very small group of people, it can make our lives worse. This is why. This is why all of the technology makes the world a more dangerous place without Bitcoin. All of the technology because because from the existing system that has to steal that abundance. Now remember technology, if you just and I don't know the number here, it's an unknowable unknown right The but but if I was to postulate on what the deflation rate should be right now if you just normalize there was no debt. In other words, the productivity LED deflation rate, I would postulate that it's about -5% a year and expanding and going faster. And so the IMF just came out with a report that in the next 10 years 40% of the jobs are going to go away. So what that what that what that means is the deflation rate is going to accelerate. What that means from the existing system is you could have 0% inflation rate you can't because the debt would collapse but it but you could have 0% inflation rate and it could still be stealing from you right. So you're not measuring from zero you're measuring from negative and and so if you're capturing that and stealing that money then the outcomes from that system that centralized because it's based on theft have to get worse and and the rate at which we're moving with technology that that's why I talked about the exponential rate. Remember, AI is the exact same rate of growth for about 60 years. It's just people are measuring it linearly except for instead of exponentially and so. So they can't see the next step of the movie. They can't see the next frame of the movie because they're not watching how the movie is playing out. They're surprised that all of a sudden we have this when you could see for sure it was kind of, that's what I talked about in the book, right? That's why there were two chapters on AI in in the book because you could see the exponential wave coming of what that would mean and then what it would mean specifically for the financial system. So it's really important to note that people typically look in silos instead of systems. And so when you're asking the silo question of the technology that's going to make a difference on top of a system that must capture that technology and take it, take the the productivity that should flow to you in the form of lower prices to somebody else, Then you're you're destroying the world as a result because people will go to war and and with very different weapons to be able to control other people. That's what. And it'll get worse and worse and worse. So there is no tech without Bitcoin. That is the path and in fact it's such a it's such a profound path. I'd actually don't. Humanity might not survive that transition path without the without it. And and then if you said what other things are going to accelerate it? Robotics. Robotics is going to merge with AI. And most of the things we think about the digital universe today and we can do this. We can touch millions of people from this conversation where we couldn't have done that before or the cost to do that. We've been so prohibitive And that an AI is going to merge with AI is going to keep going. It's going to, you're going to have artificial general intelligence and then it's going to merge with robotics and that those robotics are going to take everything into the physical world and reduce the price at step functions exponentially there as well. And why did that must flow to us in the form of lower prices? Is Bitcoin otherwise? Otherwise things break really badly. Yeah, the logic of cybernetics, by the way. Another book recommendation I have for people, Norbert Wiener. You know, guy was guy was working with Claude Shannon at MIT. I don't know, not a century ago, but getting getting almost that long ago. And these basic concepts, as Jeff, you just pointed out, they've been known. You know, the curves have been there. I only learned about this, I don't know, maybe 10 years ago. But but the the evidence has been, has been there staring us right in the face just like a lot of these concepts we've talked about today. And yeah, there there's there's really no arguing with the logic in, in my view on this stuff. We haven't been able to. I would say that's why that you build Bitcoin so unique and also that uniqueness makes it so hard to understand because there is never been in the history of humans something that could be decentralized and secure. Yep. So we always because there wasn't we always had to put an institution in the middle of that to protect us from from governments taking our rights and and over time those institutions would be corrupt Co opted by the money because money rises up so money is super ordinate to law and and and they who have the money change the laws or fight the laws until they're changed and so you see this repeat over and over again in history. Additionally to that the winners write the history books. So so you know our entire human history has this error code that replays through and through and through in these cycles until it it hits a breaking point and and then replay and it resets and typically through global conflict and and then then resets again and we've never had we never had something like Bitcoin. So if we never had something like a Bitcoin and all of the history books are written on other things, then it would obviously be hard for people to understand because they're relying on their prior beliefs to be able to do this. And and the work that you have to do in Bitcoin to be able to understand why this is different, why it why it remains decentralized, why it remains secure or remains hard capped, Is the work that you have to do to then say, what would that, what would that impose on society? What would it look like? What would the transition look like from a whole bunch of people who believe it can't happen because it's never happened to. Now it's happening. What a blessing to #1 be living this time and #2 to to have this tool that we can use, hopefully to help manage this transition. I'm curious what you'd think you know, obviously with the ETF approvals last week, major step to mainstreaming, yet people in power. Politicians are still struggling with this thing, still struggling to learn about it, wrap their arms around it, you know. Do you think what I guess what learnings or thoughts do you have about the political process either in general or what can individuals do to to affect change and and the right outcomes here? Any thoughts? It's going to be messy. It's going to be messy as one person at a time understands what we're up against and moves and moves over to the new system. But once you've seen it, you can't Unsee it. And that's going to be messy around the world as they as most people give their power to politicians to be able to steal their power or or hold their money in a bank or a regulated bank that said and you know that you have regulation on top of a system designed to steal your money. So how could that work? And so then then you have what is called a democratic process but you don't have a vote on inflation and you don't have a vote on how much money is stolen. And and so the these, the democratic process breaks down over time out out of this and you can see this that you can see this happening And the political process which is driven by money goes and lobbies for where who where the pockets of money of money are to to favor their constituents And those constituents don't know that this is happening either. And if you ask those constituents and you said, listen, we're going to build a new system and that's in the rules of that new system is every every year you're going to need to work less and you're going to gain more as a result. They would say build it first and then I'll see, right. So they wouldn't, nobody would vote for that. So if you had a politician say that, they would be thrown out in their ear, they wouldn't be, they would be unelectable. So that's why you have to impose the rules globally on a new system. And and and the people moving to that new system are creating kind of a parallel system. But that means if most people don't see it and most people actually make the system stronger through their actions, right? Oh, I just need enough to pay myself, right? And then I will one day do this right? And so most people do the same, do the same thing. What about my family? What does it matter? And every we're all like we're self interested in. We play a movie in our head and we're the prime actor. We're the actor of the movie, right. 99% of our actions are in our own head doing so in other words we don't typically do these things. We'll broadly and but I can tell I'm doing it for somebody else. But it's really for me first, right, that you can see that you can see that through all all all society and they believe but they're so power so that belief is so strong that they're actually doing it for somebody else. If you looked at Elizabeth Warren as an example, she she might actually believe that she's helping the her constituents that that she's destroying. She actually might believe that. And why? Because they go to her and they say we love you, right? Fight those big banks even though behind you're probably getting back, but but they believe it and so that that existing system globally will continue to look like that. And most people, even if you just look at a lot of what will travel more on the Internet, yelling at, yelling at something, talking about the WEF, talking about the like, it's creating a whole bunch of fear porn or building to hope what will travel, what will travel more. I would say the hopes way longer lasting and it actually changes minds for it. But if you want a quick hit, talk about the existing system, you'll get ton and then you get a ton of virality. You get more people reinforcing you and you'll make the existing system stronger but through through your actions. So it just if you just take the sum total of what we just said it means this is going to play out for a long time and it's going to well the new system emerges and the people building that new system build new rails and and and different technology that makes it easier and easier to interact with and and more people will walk across the bridge. That's it. And all the more important to take take the long term view the the cycles in Bitcoin are dramatic, can be brutal. I do want to hit, you know a focus now on the year to come that we've just started here in 2024. You know what do you, what are you excited for? You're excited for building the long term solution which is much appreciated. Are there any sort of tangible events or things you're looking forward to in the new year here so? Let's let's play this ETF as a scenario on both sides, right So and and you'll you'll see people that'll be binary on one thing. So the good news is it's going to credentialize this asset and bring a whole bunch more people on. So a whole bunch more awareness you you essentially now have BlackRock marketing Bitcoin. Now if you're if you understand Bitcoin to the level that you guys do, then you know it needs to say decentralized and secure and and self custody is the way to do that and that's that's really important but that means. That that Blackrock's going to bring on and make this asset class normalize and and others and fidelity and normalize this other than a whole bunch more bitcoiners who are then going to learn that journey. I suspect that at the same time as that's happening you could say is this coordinated or is it not coordinated but it might be coordinated that Warren ET al. Trying to drive the US away from self custody and make Bitcoin illegal to be able to hold in self custody might be coordinated. It might not be but it but there's I would say if you look if you read the tea leaves and they understand how systems work like this and that the power that the the power that Bitcoin takes from the the most mighty of financial systems and political players that are extracting wealth and gives it back to people. You can understand that the fight must be extra it will be extraordinary. But now so let's let's imagine the a bunch of these ETF players or or trying to fractionalize Bitcoin and drive enough so by doing so they'll short and drive prices down in the short in the in the short term. And combined with an office action through Fin Cen that could criticize some fear and some price pressure in the short term. But what will happen because of that? Bitcoiners who know about this asset class and what's more and more people are having something decentralized and secure will take those out of and put them into self custody as fast as prices go down is it'll be just screaming and that would cause a short squeeze of epic proportions to the point that some financial, some major financial intermediary would be liquidated. And so that's is one of the things that can happen and that could happen along with the halving that could happen after the halving that could happen at some point, but I would say not not with a 90% probability, but I would say that the sum of these things are likely to happen. I just don't know how the how the game is going to be played that don't have enough insight. I just know the first principles of Bitcoin and I know it will force this in time. So I don't care about, I don't care about the price of Bitcoin measured to a Fiat instrument. I care about Bitcoin repricing every everything which it is which if it's doing and it doesn't matter and and so now take that out of and take in a different example, our total the liquidity of the system is at some point there needs to be a vast amount of liquidity pumped into the system. That liquidity will be a massive driver of Bitcoin. If there isn't liquidity in the system, you're going to have a deflationary spiral. And the deflationary spiral will wipe out assets and capital so fast and they'll keep going until there's a then, then it, then it needs to be an exponential amount of liquidity. Just try to stop that from happening, but let's just pretend that kept going. Bitcoin would fall in that, but it would only fall in Fiat terms. It would still rise against every other asset price so, so so I I find the biggest I I find the biggest probably confusion with with even even a bunch of people in Bitcoin is what we're talking about now. They're they're so used to measuring Bitcoin through a Fiat instrument that they keep on doing that and that's the error code. And if you don't, doesn't matter. It just, it's it's going to continue to reprice the world and all all assets, all everything will fall against it, yeah. There's some very helpful charts out there about according in, in and outs of gold terms or you know versus as well or versus a median house and those are steady downtrends and I fall into that trend. We all fall into that trend paying attention to the dollar price of the fine one. Really it is about what's the purchasing your savings and how is that changing over time and and what kind of life does that create for you and your family. And and that's why I flipped my switch and we talked earlier about like people asked you if this is a light switch moment. It's an individual choice, an individual process that everybody goes through independently. Everybody has their own light switch and it's it's not an all or nothing moment. It's really like a it's a sliding light switch where you you go from zero to 100. And each. Individual does that and collectively the world goes from light off to light on. But but it's all because each individual has to recognize that my savings grows in this system and my purchasing appreciates in this system and the current system and. Then and then. Then you start going into what does that change and it it changes the the amount of things that that changes Jesse and you you know this but it it it I'm I'm tempted to write a new book yeah. And I've always said I wasn't going to write a new book but I I'm tempted. I'm tempted to write a new book on on pre-order for. That one. On on on what changes and how this look, how this looks on the other side. It's going to be a long play out but it's a but but it's a stay. It's it's a rise in consciousness of society is what happens. Beautiful. I think Jeff's writing, writing a new book, it sounds like it has to happen. I certainly look forward to it. Well, as we close up here, Jeff, any other topics you wanna hit on or places you wanna direct people to learn more about your thoughts and your activities? No. No, I just a pleasure being on with you guys. Congrats on the new podcast you guys are. You guys are doing great work. Thank you so much, Jeff. Pleasure's all ours. Really appreciate you coming on. What a fun chat. Yeah. Thanks, Andy. Thanks, Jesse.
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