Compare a fixed annual dollar-cost-averaging contribution into Bitcoin against the same contribution into a 60/40 portfolio (60% S&P 500 total return, 40% US Aggregate Bonds), rebalanced annually. The 60/40 portfolio represents a traditional balanced retirement allocation.
A DCA of $6,000 per year into Bitcoin from 2014 through 2026 ended worth more than the same DCA into 60/40 Portfolio, based on approximate year-end prices.
| Year | BTC price | BTC value | 60/40 Portfolio price | 60/40 Portfolio value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | $320 | $6,000 | $1 | $6,000 |
| 2015 | $430 | $14,062 | $1 | $12,064 |
| 2016 | $960 | $37,395 | $1 | $19,057 |
| 2017 | $14,000 | $551,349 | $1 | $27,811 |
| 2018 | $3,700 | $151,714 | $1 | $33,079 |
| 2019 | $7,200 | $301,227 | $2 | $46,495 |
| 2020 | $28,800 | $1,210,906 | $2 | $59,007 |
| 2021 | $46,000 | $1,940,086 | $2 | $74,800 |
| 2022 | $16,500 | $701,900 | $2 | $68,795 |
| 2023 | $42,000 | $1,792,656 | $2 | $87,168 |
| 2024 | $93,000 | $3,975,452 | $3 | $106,622 |
| 2025 | $95,000 | $4,066,945 | $3 | $115,454 |
| 2026 | $110,000 | $4,715,095 | $3 | $125,342 |
Backtests are based on approximate year-end prices. The simulation assumes contributions are made at the year-end price of the chosen asset; intra-year timing is not modeled.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Bitcoin historically has had higher returns and higher drawdowns than gold and equities; that history may not repeat. The calculator is provided for illustrative purposes and is not investment advice.
DCA backtests are sensitive to the chosen start and end years. Try several different windows to see how the result varies, particularly windows that begin or end near significant Bitcoin price peaks or troughs.